Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
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I don’t give a rats hind leg for the Chinese. We need to take care of our people, screw the Chinese. They’re seeking our destruction.
If this does not happen, no amount of masks are going to be enough
“Right now, best way for taking care of America is getting the situation in China under control”
—
Not really, the US is going to have it’s very own full plate to handle for a long time before it goes off, fixing everybody else’s problem.
Besides that - it’s Chinatown, Jake:
“China’s coronavirus recovery is ‘all fake,’ whistleblowers and residents claim”
https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whistleblowers-residents-claim
No, China can take care of itself. Jesus Christ what is wrong with you? A nation dedicated to our downfall and I should give a crap? I’m working in a hospital and we don’t have the masks for ourselves and Americans. F**k the Chinese.
Tell that idiot. For God’s sake I work in a hospital in southern NJ and they’ve shipped all our N 95 masks to the f’ing Chinese.
That's not accurate whatsoever. The flu has a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of ~0.1%. CV-19 has a CFR (per the WHO) of AT LEAST 3.4%. That's 34X more deadly than the flu. Oh, and it spreads roughly 4X faster as well (R0 factors), lives on surfaces up to 9 days (flu is ~1-2 days) and asymptomatic carriers can pass it - unlike the flu. Oh, and symptoms may not show for 28 days (avg is 5-6 days) where the flu manifests within a couple.
Aside from that, yeah, it's "just like the flu"..nope.
people are getting all panicky about a few 1000 cases
People are being paniced by the constant barrage of doom blaring from every type of media there is.
We were not serious in our responses to this mess: we did not slam shut the borders and keep people out thereby minimizing the chances of widespread infections from abroad.
I am sceptically cautious. I acknowledge that the death rate of this virus is higher than colds or flu but its no where near the level of “bring out your dead”. Every time I hear a report about how there are so many people that have it but do not know it or who have no symptoms, I do not take that very seriously when you can’t quantify it by any means other than projection. Yeah, it can spread to the “vulnerable” just like anything else that we do not jump off buildings about.
About the only positives is that some folks will not have to buy toilet paper until at least June and will have the whitest whites from all the bleach that was bought with their Purelled hands.
Just my opinion.
I don’t know how to say this nicely but you are in a panic, it’s not your fault it often feels like the worst-case scenario is the only possible outcome...even though history consistently implores us not to think this way. Humans (and we engineers especially) are hard-wired to overreact to the negative while underplaying the positive that is what media repetition does. It’s like advertising. It impacts you whether you know it or not.
You are generating “facts” based on only worst case negative assumptions and a linear misinterpretation of data- that all evidence indicates is wrong. Yes, the virus will spread with a reproduction rate of 2.2 but the fatality rate is actually probably around 1%. As reported by New England Journal of Medicine. That is why no one worldwide under the age of 10 has died and the fatality rate for those under 40 is 0.2 % . Its why S Korea which after China reported the first cases and is reliably reporting numbers has 6,767 cases and 44 deaths or a fatality rate of .006, add the 52 critical and your fatality rate is .014 or 1.4% basically what the New England Journal of Medicine reported in a meta analysis of all. To see why read on.
As the New England Journal of Medicine reported
— The latest tally of almost 1,100 cases of COVID-19 infection from 30 Chinese provinces shows a fatality rate of 1.4% during the early phase of the outbreak.
That’s much higher than the rate seen with the seasonal flu, where only about 0.1% of cases end in death. But it’s far below the mortality rate of recent corona virus outbreaks like SARS (9 to 10%) or MERS (36%), noted Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
Furthermore, the 1.4% figure cited in the new Chinese report, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, is probably higher than the “real” death rate, Fauci added.
That’s because many corona virus cases are so mild they’re not even being reported, Fauci explained in an editorial he co-wrote in the same issue of the NEJM. Co-authors include Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID.
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Dr. Fauci and his colleagues explained.
“This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968],” the experts wrote.
If you want to see the actual worldwide #s go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Historically, the number of confirmed cases in various epidemics has tended to rise sharply for 8 to 10 weeks, then peaked. SARS (much more deadly) Ebola, MERS, ZEKA, Avian Flu, Swine Virus “Flu.
For SARS in 2003, ZIKA 2015, Swine virus aka Swine Flu 10 years ago the same negative assumptions were out there but they didn’t have the media fanning them every day as the payoff today is maybe it will slow the economy enough to defeat Trump-if you have any doubt about this see MSNBC smiling and gloating about how this can be Trump’s Katrina.
And while 80,000 died from the flu in 2018 (a bad year) there was very little panic as the media didn’t endlessly report on it.
Moderna and Regeneron, among others report that they already have a treatment (Regeneron who developed treatment for Ebola) ready for testing this summer-and you can expect it to be expedited-yes more sadly die-perhaps reach the level of 2018 flu and sadly it is primarily seniors who are compromised and they deserve our prayers not panic.
AMEN to that! It's simply staggering that we limited people coming from China and later Iran, and left the door WIDE OPEN to people coming in from other infected hot spots like Italy and S. Korea.
Insisting that people are "screened" before they are let on a plane is insulting our intelligence. Everyone knows by know that this virus takes up to 28 days (average 5-6) to show symptoms, and that it can be spread by asymptomatic people. So why are we expected to believe that it can be stopped by "screening" when "screening" WON'T DETECT a large majority of infectious people?
Worse, it appears we are not screening people on arrival..
And don't even get me started on the complete mess that was made of our testing readiness, or the lack of stockpiled masks. Both of those are screw-ups of epic proportions given we've known of the virus for literally months now. I won't blame Trump directly as he can't be on top of everything, but the administration bungled this big-time.
Exactly
Precisely
You have that exactly right. With a 7 to 14 day incubation (possibly 24 for some) people will be shedding the virus without overt symptoms. That’s what’s insidious with these things.
You make some good points, but data at the site you linked (which I’ve been following closely also) actually results in a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of ~3.4%, which is the number the WHO has been using. (3,522 dead out of 103,741 worldwide cases).
I realize that increasing the denominator (# of confirmed cases) that the CFR will drop, but there’s evidence of a CFR even GREATER than 3.4% also. Take Italy’s numbers from yesterday as an example. 778 new cases and 49 new deaths. That’s tracking to a SIX POINT 2 percent CFR.
Net, I’d say it’s still too early to tell what the real CFR is going to be - but most data I’ve seen to this point indicates a 3.4%+ CFR, and that’s to the best of my knowledge the number the WHO has been using.
When you have way more than you need, you help others.
When you don’t have enough for you & yours, you take care of family first.
If you trust the Chinese Communist Party.
Per Johns Hopkins, the China infections on 2/20 were 75K and today 3/7 they are at 80K. If these numbers are anywhere near correct the spread in China is close to contained, certainly not exponential growth. China has had plenty of time to manufacture test kits so I’m guessing that it’s not due to lack of testing. Coronavirus is a flue-like virus and keep in mind that flue season will be ending soon. Be aware-yes, be vigilant-yes but don’t panic. Of course buying more ammo is always a sound precaution.
“We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.”
Her numbers are way off base. China has been dealing with the Virus since January. It has only 80,000 or so cases and the world count is 100,000 - after over two months global exposure.
Assuming none of the drugs now under investigation do nothing.
THat’s what is wrong w/ his analysis. I’ve read several reports about different candidates under investigation.
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