I don’t know how to say this nicely but you are in a panic, it’s not your fault it often feels like the worst-case scenario is the only possible outcome...even though history consistently implores us not to think this way. Humans (and we engineers especially) are hard-wired to overreact to the negative while underplaying the positive that is what media repetition does. It’s like advertising. It impacts you whether you know it or not.
You are generating “facts” based on only worst case negative assumptions and a linear misinterpretation of data- that all evidence indicates is wrong. Yes, the virus will spread with a reproduction rate of 2.2 but the fatality rate is actually probably around 1%. As reported by New England Journal of Medicine. That is why no one worldwide under the age of 10 has died and the fatality rate for those under 40 is 0.2 % . Its why S Korea which after China reported the first cases and is reliably reporting numbers has 6,767 cases and 44 deaths or a fatality rate of .006, add the 52 critical and your fatality rate is .014 or 1.4% basically what the New England Journal of Medicine reported in a meta analysis of all. To see why read on.
As the New England Journal of Medicine reported
— The latest tally of almost 1,100 cases of COVID-19 infection from 30 Chinese provinces shows a fatality rate of 1.4% during the early phase of the outbreak.
That’s much higher than the rate seen with the seasonal flu, where only about 0.1% of cases end in death. But it’s far below the mortality rate of recent corona virus outbreaks like SARS (9 to 10%) or MERS (36%), noted Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
Furthermore, the 1.4% figure cited in the new Chinese report, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, is probably higher than the “real” death rate, Fauci added.
That’s because many corona virus cases are so mild they’re not even being reported, Fauci explained in an editorial he co-wrote in the same issue of the NEJM. Co-authors include Dr. Robert Redfield, who directs the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director of the NIAID.
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%,” Dr. Fauci and his colleagues explained.
“This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza pandemic [which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%] or a pandemic influenza [similar to those in 1957 and 1968],” the experts wrote.
If you want to see the actual worldwide #s go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Historically, the number of confirmed cases in various epidemics has tended to rise sharply for 8 to 10 weeks, then peaked. SARS (much more deadly) Ebola, MERS, ZEKA, Avian Flu, Swine Virus “Flu.
For SARS in 2003, ZIKA 2015, Swine virus aka Swine Flu 10 years ago the same negative assumptions were out there but they didn’t have the media fanning them every day as the payoff today is maybe it will slow the economy enough to defeat Trump-if you have any doubt about this see MSNBC smiling and gloating about how this can be Trump’s Katrina.
And while 80,000 died from the flu in 2018 (a bad year) there was very little panic as the media didn’t endlessly report on it.
Moderna and Regeneron, among others report that they already have a treatment (Regeneron who developed treatment for Ebola) ready for testing this summer-and you can expect it to be expedited-yes more sadly die-perhaps reach the level of 2018 flu and sadly it is primarily seniors who are compromised and they deserve our prayers not panic.
You make some good points, but data at the site you linked (which I’ve been following closely also) actually results in a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of ~3.4%, which is the number the WHO has been using. (3,522 dead out of 103,741 worldwide cases).
I realize that increasing the denominator (# of confirmed cases) that the CFR will drop, but there’s evidence of a CFR even GREATER than 3.4% also. Take Italy’s numbers from yesterday as an example. 778 new cases and 49 new deaths. That’s tracking to a SIX POINT 2 percent CFR.
Net, I’d say it’s still too early to tell what the real CFR is going to be - but most data I’ve seen to this point indicates a 3.4%+ CFR, and that’s to the best of my knowledge the number the WHO has been using.