https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Posted on 03/06/2020 10:19:16 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
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Are you Immuno compromised, less than a year old, or old and at deaths door such that a flu would do it??
Speaking of the flu, why aren't you talking about that - Hmmm?? It's been going around before this bugger and has a far higher death rate. Why weren't you screaming about the flu before this??
Here is what is going to happen. The corona virus is going to go through the worlds population like the yearly flu is now with a far less death rate. Pediatrics is going to have a few more babies sick than the usual flu. Nursing homes are going to have a bit more than the usual flu going to the hospital. Folks with AIDs, Transplants and other immuno-compromising situations who should have been preparing for the yearly flu should be talking to their doctors and praying that the human trials for the corona virus is successful and safe for them in time.
We should be praying for the vaccine makers, that they will be able to make enough of it to make a difference and for wise doctors and nurses to administer it.
Those in the US and in the civilized countries who take vitamins, eat healthy, exercise and sleep well should sail though this like the flu. But you were doing this in preparation for the flu already weren't you?? And, thank God, for Trump's "Right to Try" law. Without it, even if the vaccine was developed, safe and effective for all, the vaccine could not be used for years.
That is all,
Signing Off,
CO
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105
Viruses “attenuate”. Remember Pastuer and Rabies? It’s a natural thing viruses do. They become less virulent with each passage.
“Don’t listen to PhD biochemist who’s speciality is crap like the impossible whopper”
Yeah, I’m a bit suspicious of her credentials and motives as well.
“Only critical patients should be in hospitals. The rest of all y’all stay home”
True and most cases are reported to be rather mild. Also efforts to fight it and mitigate it start slowing down the spread. See my post #42.
Or they could mutate to something worse.
I’m certainly not panicking, but though FLU viruses grow faster in cold weather, there are many that LIKE warm or hot weather. (Think polio, for instance).
the epidemic burns itself out
The panic and hysteria will burn itself out too. I’m burnt out already. Unless I see thousands of people around me sick or dying I’m not going to care. So far everything is the SOS different day.
both 1 and 2 in your scenario occur- the virus itself doesn’t burn out- i shouldn’t have put it that way- the pandemic, or epidemic- or flu threat or whatever- dwindles until no more folks are getting infected- most get vaccinated against it- and everyone in that particular area haS either had it, or been vaccinated against it- the virus stops infecting people in that area- it moves on- until the same thing happens in the whole country- then worldwide- then it morphs- and starts all over again the next ‘season’
What i was getting at is that we tend to get a handle on flues and viruses, vaccinate people, and the viruses have noone left to infect so it, the pandemic or flu episodes, ‘burns out’ in that area- so usually it doesn’t turn into pandemics of the massive type seen with the Spanish flu- We’ve had a couple of bad flues- SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu etc that they thought were gonna wreak havoc- but didn’t- as the flu was brought under control- and the threat ‘burned out’ eventually world wide-
Is it unreasonable to suggest MASH-like units in the southwest with air conditioned tents to deal with a large scale outbreak?
I can’t help believing this is an engineered virus that China let loose to attack the US to try to take down Trump in the 2020 election. They don’t care about their own people and don’t care about short term economic effects. Communists play a long game of attrition.
Another scenario is that they’re testing the efficacy of such an engineered virus as a weapon, measuring how quickly the virus can immobalize the US while gauging how the US responds and what weaknesses are revealed in our medical and logistics systems, not recognizing that our military are quick learners; nor recognizing that Trump is a master logistician.
isopropal or ethyl alcohol is really cheap- thats’ the main ingredients in hand sanitizers- just pick up a bottle of aloe vera gel, and mix the two- and you have hand sanitizer- basically-
Exponential is what the layman doesn’t understand.
Remember the image from when people where still concerned about overpopulation? A jar has beans in it that divide into two every second. It takes ten years for the jar to be half full. How long does it take for the jar to become full?
Given that H1N1 ended up infecting 60 million, COVID 19 could easily top a few million cases within a year. The question is, how many of those would be mild vs. critical. And we don’t yet know how many strains there are.
Rando wingnut on Twitter:”This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data.....That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply!!!!!!!!!!!”
Retard on FR: “boy this is like totally sciencz!”
“LOL. If any of this were remotely true, the healthcare system would collapse 6 months out of every year just from influenza.”
Shhhhhhhhh. That’s too much logic.
We should go back to bashing MSNBC for math errors and projecting intellectual superiority.
Does Fairchild commissary sell to the general public? 40% alcohol won’t cut it as viral sanitizer, though.
South Korea may be a better indicator (non-Commies). Latest daily numbers show just 174 new cases, so it may be slowing there too.
This seems to give a percentage (10-20%) pneumonia. Does flu supposedly do that? It also is more contagious.
A country that night and day is looking to destroy us militarily, politically and economically and we're shipping them N 95 masks.
They need them, we can make more.
Stoping the spread of the virus in China is the critical link in the process. If it can be delayed from making sufficient critical mass of infections,
If the virus is sufficiently checked in China, the rest of the world will have time to prepare
If it breaks out sufficiently, it will spread rapidly. The goal is to slow the spread in hopes it will follow other corona virus epidemiology and moderate spread in the spring to get us safely through this season.
We will be prepared by the time next season comes around. If we see s la wide spread break out this year, no amount of masks are going yo work
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