Posted on 03/05/2020 6:56:42 PM PST by NRx
Ventilators in short supply. Intensive care beds already overflowing. Some health workers buying their own face masks or hoods. And if cases of the deadly coronavirus surge in anything like the numbers some experts have predicted, doctors say they would have to consider denying lifesaving care to the frailest patients to prioritize those with better chances of surviving.
“If we haven’t got ventilatory support to offer them, it’s going to end in death,” said Dr. George Priestley, an intensive care doctor and anesthesiologist in Yorkshire in northern England. “I don’t want to be alarmist. I just want someone to pay attention.”
...“We’re already at maximum capacity and clearing out beds as best we can,” said Dr. Nick Scriven, a specialist in urgent conditions in Halifax, a town in northern England, and the former president of The Society for Acute Medicine.
Britain has shed roughly 160,000 hospital beds since the late 1980s as doctors shortened recovery times and tried to reduce reliance on hospital care, mirroring efforts across Europe. But Britain now has the second-fewest hospital beds per capita in Europe, according to the European Union. And a 2011 study suggested that it had one-seventh the number of intensive care beds per person that the United States did.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
“Why not the “immigrants” living on welfare go last?”
Would now be a good time to start a “Citizen Sanctuary” movement?
Coronavirus: Supermarkets preparing for ‘food riots’ as panic buying Brits strip shelves
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-supermarkets-preparing-food-riots-21642224
“This is what the guy on the Peak Prosperity video said about the UK. Only 28 beds available in the whole country for severe respiratory disease, and have of those were occupied.”
so, what’s the deal with you? are you some kid living in his mother’s basement? you actually believe that the are only 28 beds for for severe respiratory disease in a country with 66 million people, and you actually believe that because some video by something called “Peak Prosperity” said so?
try some ACTUAL numbers on for size:
“Of 156,474 admissions to 227 adult critical care unit in England, Wales and Northern Ireland participating in the Case Mix Programme during 2012, 69,606 (44.5%) were mechanically ventilated during the critical care unit stay.
The estimated total number of mechanically ventilated admissions, following extrapolation, was 116,000.
we estimate the total number of ventilated admissions in all adult and paediatric critical care units in the UK during 2012 was approximately 136,000.
Based on a mean duration of ventilation of 6 days in neurosciences units, 2 days in cardiothoracic units or HDUs, and 5 days in other unit types, this figure corresponds to an average of approximately 1,500 ventilated patients at any point in time.”
Now does that sound to you like there are “only 28 beds available in the whole country for severe respiratory disease, and have of those were occupied”?
The video had said the “most severe repiratory cases”. And I believe it mentioned blood oxygenation machines (ECMO).
So I realize England has more ventilators.
But I believe the shortage was beds with ECMO machines.
How do you explain the article that says they are already having shortages?
They only have 116 official cases.
If only every country in the world was run like China, there would be no problem with containment. This is the barrow the commie loving media will push more and more.
“But I believe the shortage was beds with ECMO machines.”
And don’t forget about negative pressure rooms to keep them from infecting the rest of the facility.
#15. All living people end up in death. Called “life-span” and how it ends.
UK medicine is an example of why sane people don’t vote for the Left. Unfortunately, in England, there are too many insane leftist voters. Perhaps the virus will reducing the voter rolls a bit. Time to thin the herd.
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
98,387 declared cases
03,383 declared deceased
55,441 declared recovered
58,824 declared resolved
39,563 remaining active cases
The mortality rate at this time was deceased / deceased + recovered = 5.75%.
That is a fluid number that is now dropping at the rate of about 0.05% per day.
Due to the rapid increase in cases outside China, and the short period they
have had to reach the recovery phase, this mortality rate is slowing in it's
retreat. It likely start climbing again within a few days.
On 03/05 95.10% of all new cases were being reported outside of Mainland
China. The outside China active cases now account for 39.95% of all global
remaining active cases. That figure grew by 5.07% on Thursday 03/05. Within
48 hours over 50% of all remaining active cases, will exist outside Mailand
China for the first time.
58,824 cases have been decleared resolved, and that represents 59.788% of all
declared cases to date. (resolved = deceased or recovered)
Active cases are increasing again. For the first time since 02/17, the number of
acive cases grew on Thursday (03/05). The active cases grew by 823 cases. That
number will be larger in upcoming days. There are now 39,563 active cases. That
is 19,246 less cases than there were at 15:13 PST on 02/17/2020. That figure was
58,809.
Numbers seem to indicate that we are at least two weeks away from another peak, and
perhaps much longer. Look for active cases to grow by 1500 to 2500 for an
indeterminate period of time.
The number of people who recovered today (03/02), was 2,139.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
17,832 declared cases
00,341 declared deceased
01,685 declared recovered
02,026 declared resolved
15,806 remaining active cases
At this point 18.12% of all declared cases exist outside Mainland China.
(eod: 03/05) At the same time, 39.95% of all active cases exist outside mainland
China.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is 16.83% falling from
18.59% at EOD 03/04, the previous day. That figure is still grosely high, and should
not be used for purposes of extrapolation of what lies ahead. It takes serveral weeks
for people to be infected, and recover. That gives the deaths a head start. As in
the large body of cases above, this mortality rate will decline, and will pick up
speed as the recovery rate outside Mainland China reaches it's full potential. That
will at least several more weeks.
There are now 15,806 active cases outside of Mainland China. The number of
active cases grew 2,792 cases today, and that was a rate of 16.96%. (EOD 03/05)
Ninety-three nations are now declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Three nations of the 92 nations or entities outside of Mainland China account for
over 75% of all active cases outside China at this time.
6,284 35.24% South Korea
3,858 21.64% Italy
3,513 19.70% Iran
76.58% of all cases ourside of China...
These are clearly three break-out naitons. The next possible hot spots:
0423 France
0545 Germany
0282 Spain
0233 the U. S.
It's not necessarily the number of current cases, as much as the velocity of growth.
When I see a naiton's count growing by 50% every day or two, it causes concern.
All of this informaton is derived from the database below, which was built using the
Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus status page. I watch it daily and capture three
to five batches of data per day.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You will
find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. There are also
a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of 93 nations and
their Coronavirus record is there for you to view.
You're welcoem to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
Make that three. I’ve been saying here for the past few days this ought to be an illustrative example of how Europe’s supposed great socialized health care handles all this. After all the Left is trying their level best to have it implemented here.
Nationalized Medicine is ill prepared
come back in 6 months
how soon before America starts seeing coronovirus patients coming to America for “asylum”? we already get aids patients claiming it.
and the aclu stands with the sick in defying quarantine
“See Ezekiel Emmanuel’s “Complete Lives System “.
The elderly and infirmed go last. Save Resources for those who can be productive”
Along with that are the votes. What’s a better deal to get votes, a knee for an 80 year old women, or 4000 immunization shots for young kids? A hip for an 85 year old man, or a clinic that can quickly and efficiently treat 1000 kids running a small fever for the same cost? Swapping out some valves for a 75 year old woman, or telling her that ‘there’s nothing we can do’ and using that money to subsidize the price of drugs for thousands of people?
Those are the trades and the result is that people in these countries (particularly Canada) generally LOVE their socialized medicine. But when it comes to high-cost stuff, they’re usually too old to bitch (or too few of them, or they don’t even know they’ve been put on a ‘Pathway’, to use the British term for a death sentence)...and so overall public support remains sky high for them.
...doctors say they would have to consider denying lifesaving care to the frailest patients to prioritize those with better chances of surviving.”
Having this said in the West? They will just have to let people die rather than try to get in front of it somehow? yikes.
ECMO isn’t an option even on a good day. The amount of ECMO available in the US is about one per 250,000 people and they are only in urban areas. It will come down to rationing ventilators for the young and. AMBU bags for the rest of us. Anyone counting on ECMO is delusional.
+. Big problem! The machines currently cost about $500.000 EACH.
“The greatness of socialized medicine...”
But all the government forms are filled out, the bureaucrats are all paid, and the transgender nurses are happy. There are some success stories.
Oh the healthcare utopia which is England, enjoy
There is a reason for quarantine, it's effective and it's logical.
The aclu would not exist during the Medieval times, because they would have all drowned
during the 'dunkings' to see whether they were 'witches' ,.. or not.
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