Cool. Glad we got to the same page.
Frankly, given most of these are Chinese “statistics”, I don’t trust the numerator or denominator data.
Next, what happens in the U.S. where people are healthier, there is less smoking, pollution is lower, and the health care system is better? I know the answer to that: We’ll have a much lower contraction and death rate than did China.
So, I’m not so much focused on the quantity of dead people in the U.S. (though as a Jewish guy, we’re all 100% equally valuable in the eyes of G-d), but rather the supply chain and societal freak-out factors. I’m really close to ground zero in a lower economic town (Tacoma), and if things go badly, we go all Rodney King Riots really fast. So that’s where my eyes are.
“Next, what happens in the U.S. where people are healthier, there is less smoking, pollution is lower, and the health care system is better? I know the answer to that: We’ll have a much lower contraction and death rate than did China.”
Smoking rates are not dramatically different in the US and China - 18% and 25%, but I think the demographics of smokers are much different. In the US it is rural types that smoke more as the nanny-staters have discouraged smoking in the cities. In China, it is the opposite - the affluent city dwellers smoke more than the rurals.
Pollution levels are lower, but pollution in India is comparable to that in China and as far as we know the CV did not take hold there (as far as we know).
I would expect that contraction rates are going to be consistent based on exposure, but the frequency of severe cases should be determined by smoking and pollution levels among other factors. So not as bad here as in China. I sure hope so, anyway.