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To: calenel
Thank you for a reasonable post.

My point isn't that thes numbers are proof-positive facts that the 2017-2018 US influenza strain was deadlier than coronavirus. My point is that we CAN perform calculations, we CAN understand drawbacks to this or that number...and we can MAKE INFERENCES.

Yes, there may be some apples to oranges in my numbers. Hospitalizations aren't resolved cases...but at least my numbers are fruit salad.

But the ‘but flu’ trolls will glom onto that 7.5% number to claim the flu is more dangerous. Probably even before I finish this post..

FR is a place where we usually have the ability to make reasoned, cogent assessments wth imperfect information is a state of life. Rarely do we get perfection...yet increasingly many here like to make inferences that are just nuts - akin to global warming simulations and R0 estimates at this stage of the epidemic. But some estimates ARE fair, and we will have to plow through the trolls.

143 posted on 03/03/2020 6:20:47 PM PST by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

Gravity’s waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2


That made me smile.


147 posted on 03/03/2020 6:23:24 PM PST by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: DoodleBob

” and we will have to plow through the trolls.”

Heh, heh, doing my best. :)


150 posted on 03/03/2020 6:35:46 PM PST by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant.)
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