Posted on 03/03/2020 3:07:04 PM PST by kristinn
“3.4%? OK,maybe. Averaging things out the death rate could be 6% in China,2% in Japan and South Korea,1.5% in Europe and 1% here.”
Excluding China and Iran because we can’t believe anything those clowns say, the current CFRs for the places you listed are currently much higher. This is due to the fact that most of the cases in those countries/regions have not resolved and dying from CV generally happens faster than recovering. So the WHO must be basing their calculations off of some other data. Maybe they have real stats from China. Everywhere else is still too early for this kind of official number to have meaning.
Flu mortality is still 0.1%. Just sayin’.
I’m sorry, people that died or lost someone they loved. As a percentage of the total population of the world 3000 can barely be expressed.
Over 2 million people die every day of all causes. Heck probably 3 million people could die in a single day and we wouldn’t even know it.
Why are you assuming the number of infected in Hubei is so much higher than reported but not the number of dead?
I think that due to edicts from on high and the total breakdown of the health care system in Wuhan the numbers from there are meaningless. There is circumstantial evidence and some reporting that the number of dead is much, much higher, but how can we know for sure?
This is due to the fact that most of the cases in those countries/regions have not resolved and dying from CV generally happens faster than recovering.
So the WHO must be basing their calculations off of some other data.
Many thanks for posting; I don’t know how it messed up on my post.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3821304/posts?page=1#1
This morning it was 6.09%.
You can’t take the whole body of cases and use that to figure the mortality rate. You don’t know what the outcome of the still active cases will be.
Some will be death. The 3.4% figure is totally bogus.
You can only take the resolved cases as your basis for study.
morality rage = deaths / (deaths + recovered)
That is currently 6.09%
It is dropping, but these are the only cases that are resolved.
correction
rage > rate
During a press briefing Monday, WHO officials said they don’t know how COVID-19 behaves, saying it’s not like influenza. They added that while much is known about the seasonal flu, such as how it’s transmitted and what treatments work to suppress the disease, that same information is still in question when it comes to the coronavirus.
Yes. Perfect sense.
Not that the trolls will ever understand it...
Thanks for your input. I know you’ve been putting in the work on this.
Yeah, I’ve been watching Wuhan closely also since second week of January, it was like something out of Zombie Apocalypse or Resident Evil.
So I knew even then for example face masks were sold out—Chinese speculators bought up a lot of them as soon as Wuhan started. Shelves here have been bare of masks for weeks, although no one focused on why. Why are they telling you in the U.S. you don’t need to wear masks? It’s because the U.S. doesn’t have any.
But on FreeRepublic they just call me a “concern troll.”
You know what ticks me off the most. All the American media weres fixated on the fake Shampeachment 24 hours a day when a real world disaster was building up in China. And now the Democrats try to blame Trump for it all.
Right on Uncle Miltie.
Yes, what you said made perfect sense.
That's sorta like living downwind of a huge forest, and a storm rolls through, dry lighting, only two dozen trees are struck and set ablaze.
Would you say "Awwww, too bad about those trees, but there's a million trees in the woods, a couple dozen burning is nothing to worry about!"
Let us know when you smell smoke Grampa Dave, wouldja?
I think a lot of people in Paradise, CA waited until they smelled smoke to worry.
I already responded to your BS.
This meets the definition of pandemic. There is community transmission on 4 or more continents at this point. The mortality rate is not what determines the status.
Your one source that you rely on is itself dependent on numbers that are being faked for political gain. They are being suppressed to hide the major screwup by the CCP in handling this thing early on.
There is certainly evidence that suggests the number of dead in Wuhan is a 5 or 6 digit figure. 5000 cremations every day for 6+ weeks (multiple people from inside Wuhan have reported this) instead of the usual 4000 or so per week. Multiple ‘hospitals’ for thousands of patients - with no plumbing. 40 extra industrial incinerators for ‘medical waste’ when there is no medicine actually happening any more. Again, multiple sources. I’m not going there to check, but you feel free. That’s the only way we’ll get the facts out of China, at least for a long time. Based on what we’ve observed in the rest of the world, we can assume that most or all of the people in Wuhan are infected. Applying the 3.4% WHO number yields hundreds of thousands of dead, which is consistent with the crematorium numbers. So is this all paranoia and hype? You believe that, if you like. I’d rather not take the chance.
China tanked their own economy for what looks like at least 2 quarters over a case of the sniffles, right?
Thank you.
Didn’t mean to infer you were making some faulty assumption there.
I too often forget to take the name out of the “to” spot.
I am not going to blame China too much. I believe they slowed down the spread to the rest of the world, which is the strategy that has to be employed everywhere. The real danger of this is not how deadly it is, it is how contagious it is, which could end up overwhelming the healthcare system or even society as a whole. Even people who recover may be very sick for 3 or 4 weeks. In China 20 percent of the people got this ended up in critical condition in the hospital with severe respiratory problems. That’s where your death figures come from, out of that population. And it’s not just the old.
I have read the second infection mortality rate is 30%. I do not believe anything coming from foreign governments or the UN. I believe the situation in China is quite bad based upon how the government of China is reacting. But one cannot project our future situation or the world’s from the problem in China. There are simply too many variables. Variations in population density, hygiene, diet, and culture etc. can cause wide swings in the progress of the disease. While I am a medical layman, as one targeted for elimination by the woo hoo flu I am not worried nor am I changing my life.
The only panicking I see is by the Meta Concern Trolls. Maybe they are attention starved.
Your logic in dismissing this is flawed. It isn’t a static situation or just “the flu”.
Yeah, everybody is going to die someday. This thing will make it sooner for some people. If that does not concern you, feel free to not participate in the ongoing threat evaluation. But shame on you for your casual disregard of human life.
How about subtracting those mostly old and feeble folks who, if they did not get infected with covid-19, they were at very high risk of dying soon from flu or pneumonia or heart disease or advanced diabetes or stroke or falling in a bath tub, etc?
From what I am reading MOST victims of covid-19 are old and feeble and already have health issues.
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