South Korea reports 315 more virus cases, bringing its increase for the day to 571 and total infections to 2,337

Washington Post ^ | Today

[cba123]

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea reports 315 more virus cases ...

[cba123]

Still climbing, though I believe they have now accelerated, the testing there.

[Moonman62]

On the positive side, I think this means they are putting in a full effort to find all the cases, which is important for effective containment.

[Mariner]

South Korea has drive thru testing stations.

California has a total of 200 test kits.

[buwaya]

SK has done more than anyone so far (other than China maybe) to do mass testing.

I suspect they are detecting part of the mass of the healthy carriers or lightly affected that are missing from many national reports, that seem to focus mainly on those hospitalized.

[cabbieguy]

If South Korea has this many cases, it is not hard to imagine the number of cases in North Korea. Unfortunately we will never know the true number of cases in that closed country, maybe if MSNBC would send Brian Williams and CNN send Anderson Cooper over they could do some investigative reporting and give us the true number of cases in a country they must feel is more open than ours. Guess that will never happen, too bad.

[dp0622]

They got that TWO HUNDRED THOUSAND person cult or something that account for most of the cases.

Or maybe i’m wrong.

What do I know? :)

[GOPJ]

South Korea has drive thru testing stations. California has a total of 200 test kits.

Probably because the test kits are manufactured in South Korea or China... Any idea where the kits are manufactured?

Always nice to know our worthless Military was prepared for a bio-attack. /s

[zeestephen]

Re: South Korea 200,000 person cult

I read the same information you did.

Several days ago the SK government specifically referenced the huge infection rate with one or more cults.

The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) in South Korea is remarkably low - just 0.56%.

They have 2,337 confirmed cases, but only 13 deaths.

In China, the CFR is six times higher - 3.3%.

Anyone know anything at all about North Korea?

Maybe the civilized world will get lucky and the entire Kim family will cough to death?

[Fido969]

You can’t just use the deaths over infection rate to determine the case fatality rate, many infected are still sick.

Over time, that ratio will clarify.

[zeestephen]

Re: You can’t just use the deaths over infection rate to determine the case fatality rate

Actually, that’s exactly how the CDC calculates CFR.

You are thinking about the “Mortality Rate,” which is impossible to calculate at this early stage.

CFR is a useful interim number, and it is all we have at the moment.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

Actually the CFR works really well for historical epidemics, where every case has reached its conclusion.

The way you're using it requires that no one currently sick ever dies of the disease.

[bgill]

Everyone testing but the USA.

[Jakarta ex-pat]

And Indonesia.

[BushCountry]

The death rate is likely to about the same as the flu now that they have established treatment options (this took tiem). South Koreans are healthier (not smog filled cites) and have more advance facilities. The death rate is not remarkably low, it was how this virus was completely blown out of proportion that was remarkable. With a vaccine on the horizon, better treatment and warmer weather coming, this thing is on the down-slide.

Remdesivir has shown promise against other coronaviruses and may be beneficial in this current outbreak. Gilead’s drug is now being tested in China and the U.S. Also, convalescent plasma, a blood product taken from people who have already fallen ill, may have great potential.

Israeli Scientists say they’ll have a Coronavirus vaccine in just weeks.

[Gay State Conservative]

A friend has family in South Korea. She's worried sick.

[Gay State Conservative]

If I were to contract this virus I'd surely prefer to be in South Korea rather than North Korea...or China.

[BushCountry]

Depending on her age, it is no worse than the flu. And as I said new treatments and a vaccine are coming. The death rate will decrease. The chart below shows satistics from the early onset, before they applied any newer treatments.

[Gay State Conservative]

First of all I doubt the truthfulness of *any* info on this coming from China.But let's say...for the sake of argument...that these stats are accurate.Compare them to the stats from civilized countries/regions (Europe,the US,Japan,South Korea,etc) regarding the ordinary,run-of-the-mill flu that circulates every year in the Northern Hemisphere.

It's my understanding that when a normal person hits 50 he/she becomes at least a bit more susceptible to various infections (bacteria and viruses) than he/she was at 40. And it's also my understanding that that susceptibility rises substantially as one hits 60...70...80.

So if,in civilized countries (where good health care is available),it's the 70...80...90 year olds that are dying I'd be inclined to seeing this as just another strain of "flu".

Of course and Infectious Disease Specialist or an Epidemiologist might disagree with my assumptions or logic.

[BushCountry]

It almost matches the flu as you stated. Death rates flu US by age.

0-4 years — 0.8%
5-17 years — 0.6%
18-49 years — 7.2%
50-64 years — 16.6%
65 and older — 74.8%