That was written on Feb 4.
Not very many non Asians had seen complete disease progression then to make that determination.
I’d wait another month for the cases in the ICU in Italy to resolve one way or another before I’d say that for sure.
This bug isn’t a ‘quick killer’ like the ones from Hollywood movies. It can take several weeks after exposure to have symptoms and then some linger in the ICU for 2 or 3 more weeks.
So we can’t say for sure what Italy’s CFR is just yet either.
Even if very few non Asians die, the effect of the disease on Asians will wreck our economies as they’re so intertwined with Asia at this point.
I sure hope so. I’ve been waiting for this for years. Now I finally get to tell everyone “I told you so.”
Or not.
“I’d wait another month for the cases in the ICU in Italy to resolve one way or another before I’d say that for sure.”
I am willing to bet that the vast majority of confirmed cases in Italy are Chinese people who work in the garment factories in Northern Italy:
https://www.ecnmy.org/engage/prato-chinese-stuff-look-around/
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/13/world/europe/13prato.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/business/italy-china-far-right.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Italy