Posted on 02/27/2020 4:44:36 AM PST by karpov
LOL, should be easy for Trump to beat a guy who thinks he’s running for Senate.
Wonder why the “liberals” are all of a sudden coming out strong against Castro?
When before they lavished praise on him?
Their beloved democrat politicians, and celebs, would visit him and say how wonderful he was and how great his HC was.
A) Bernie won’t be nominated (though I wish he could be)
B) in the unlikely event Bernie is nominated he’s not “picking off” anything and will lose in a Mondale landslide
C) Bloomberg actually has a chance of winning more states than Hillary did... he can simply purchase them
The key difference between socialism and communism is the means of achieving them. In communism, a violent revolution in which the workers rise up against the middle and upper classes is seen as an inevitable part of achieving a pure communist state. Socialism is a less rigid, more flexible ideology. Its adherents seek change and reform, but insist on making these changes through democratic processes within the existing social and political structure, not overthrowing that structure.
Social democracy, the most common form of modern socialism, focuses on achieving social reforms and redistribution of wealth through democratic processes, and can co-exist alongside a free-market capitalist economy.
Florida is the one state where Bernie’s affinity for Fidel really hurts him. That should be figured into the analysis, as well.
Trump will win Ohio no matter who the candidate is. Should win FL but candidate selection will change the race here.
Without FL, The Bern has NO chance of being elected President. All the rest are details.
Bernie isn’t going to win OH. Stop dreaming. He has zero appeal
In the American heartland.
You’ll assume he’ll moderate for the general election and run for the center. He won’t.
Based on what. The economic conditions are unknowns now with the viral calamity. Also, in 2008 Obama was not that popular in Ohio leading up to the election (Gov. Strickland was in a panic because he was being pressured to deliver Ohio for Obama). September 2008 happened and the political outlook to a 180 degree turn.
Don’t take anything for granted, especially elections.
Bern’s a DMW. His bad heart makes Arkancide a no brainer. The Bloomocrat party will pick its nominee.
Bern’s a DMW. His bad heart makes Arkancide a no brainer. The Bloomocrat party will pick its nominee.
Doomberg has been spending a TON of money on TV ads in Florida. Every channel.
Doomberg has been spending a TON of money on TV ads in Florida. Every channel.
14 states hold their primaries on Tues 3/3.
Bernie will be viable (over 15%) in each and win delegates in each.
Other candidates with a chance for viability in each state:
CA: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
UTAH: Bloom, Biden, Warren
COL: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
TX: Bloom, Biden, Warren
OKLA: Bloom, Biden, Butt
ARK: Bloom, Biden, Butt
ALABAMA: Bloom, Biden
TENN: Bloom, Biden
NC: Bloom, Biden, Warren
VA: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
MINN: AmyK, Warren
MASS: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
VT: Butt
MAINE: Bloom, Biden, Warren, Butt
Conclusions?
1. A good chunk of the non-Bernie vote will cast on candidates who finish in the 10% - 12% range. And receive 0 delegates.
2. Bernie will win 7 to 10 states.
The problem fir RATs who want to stop Bernie is exacerbated by the fact that in many of those Super Tuesday states well more than half of votes will have been cast prior to the South Carolina primary. Massive early voting means that Biden won’t get the chance to consolidate anti-Bernie support even if he wins big in SC. Bernie could get far less than 40% of the vote on Super Tuesday yet walk away with 2/3 of the delegates up for grabs.
Yes, good point.
Going forward, I don’t think Biden is capable of consolidating much. Their only path is to accumulate delegates everywhere. Perhaps the end result is
Biden 800
Bloomberg 700
Butt 500
Warren, others 300
Enough to stop Bernie, but doesn’t give them an obvious or default nominee.
A new candidate would have to jump in and win WIS, PENN, ORE, NJ. But Bernie’s likely too strong in those 4.
The Northern Democrats turned their base into lunatics ... problematic for national elections.
I just saw that the Wisconsin ballot deadline has passed. If somebody new jumps in, they’d start somewhere else
Penn deadline was last week. That ain’t happening.
Ct, M.D. ...SAME! too late
Oregon deadline is March 10.
GA ?
NEB
MONT
NM
NJ
Are all doable
It’s too late for anyone to jump in and get a decent number of delegates heading into the convention. Frankly, the only way that I see someone who is not currently in the race getting the RAT nomination is if Bernie dies before the convention (thus leaving his hundreds of delegates, probably a majority or near-majority of those in the first ballot, up for grabs).
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