New Hampshire could be a big win for Bloomberg

The Hill ^ | 02/11/20 11:00 AM EST | Liz Peek

[Zhang Fei]

For all the breathless coverage, the New Hampshire Democratic primary is truly dinky — awarding only 24 pledged delegates, one percent of the 1,990 needed to win. That is even fewer than Iowa. It’s barely worth fighting for, except that, especially in the wake of the Iowa fiasco, New Hampshire will punch above its weight.

The first four contests, including Nevada, will award a total of 155 pledged delegates. If the candidates perform as predicted by today’s polls, Sanders will lead on the cusp of Super Tuesday with 34 delegates, followed by Biden (33), Buttigieg (25) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) (20). Activist Tom Steyer could pick up 10 delegates in South Carolina, where he has talked up policies like reparations that are particularly popular with black voters. Klobuchar could nab a few along the way.

It is important to remember that the March 3 contests dwarf the haul from the four early states. On Super Tuesday Democratic candidates, including, for the first time, Mike Bloomberg, will compete for 1,345 pledged delegates. The biggest states up for grabs are California, with 416 delegates, Texas, with 228, and North Carolina, with 110.

In California today, Sanders and Biden both have over 20 percent of the vote, with Bloomberg far behind at only 4 percent. But, with 800 staffers in the state, his huge ad spend, and his growing list of endorsements from more than 50 party officials in the state, Bloomberg is gaining ground fast. In Texas, he is only at 7 percent, but is quickly opening a slew of offices and, as in California, racking up endorsements. Biden and Sanders lead in North Carolina, where Bloomberg is beginning to run ads; one recent poll gave him 14 percent of the vote.

Don’t underestimate the power of limitless money.

[Zhang Fei]

Democratic libertines making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and up aren't worried that Sanders will lose to Trump. They're afraid he'll win. It's one thing to virtue signal on taxes, pro-criminal laws and open borders, and quite another to end up paying tens of thousands of dollars (and up to billions) more in taxes, every single year onwards. Here are some details of Sanders's $1T a year Federal tax increase, from the Tax Foundation:

Individual Income Tax Changes

Adds four new income tax brackets for high-income households, with rates of 37 percent, 43 percent, 48 percent, and 52 percent.

Taxes capital gains and dividends at ordinary income rates for households with income over $250,000.

Creates a new 2.2 percent “income-based [health care] premium paid by households.” This is equivalent to increasing all tax bracket rates by 2.2 percentage points, and would raise the top marginal income tax rate to 54.2 percent.

That's why Bloomberg is spending possibly billions to run for president. Because if Sanders wins, Bloomberg's Federal tax bill for a single year alone will exceed his presidential campaign spending.

[Jeff Chandler]

Will bloomers get the vote of the black people he claims are committing all the crimes?

[VTenigma]

Or not

[catbertz]

Life moves fast! I think he's gonna be too busy putting out racial fires this week and next. 😎

[PIF]

Our next President will buy the election with the promise of free money to all who vote for him ... the first 500 will get $1,000,000 each tax free. The rest will be in the $1000-$10,000 range depending on their SJW score.

[Zhang Fei]

[Life moves fast! I think he’s gonna be too busy putting out racial fires this week and next. ]

---

Non-black Democrats probably agree with him. He won re-election in NYC twice despite intense black opposition to stop-and-frisk. Blacks are 1/4 of NYC’s voters. That’s roughly what they are in the Democratic primaries.

[Vigilanteman]

Well, there is an easy way to spin that:

"This is happening because of whitey's oppression and if we get reparations, it will stop."

[dynachrome]

Losing the black vote in N.H. won’t hurt him much, assuming lesser percentages of other than white races outside of the big cities.

White alone 12,147 76.6%

Hispanic 6,790 10.9%

Asian alone 4,635 6.1%
.
Black alone 2,444 2.2%

two or more races 210 2.2%

American Indian alone 140 0.2%

Other race alone 0.1%

Read more: http://www.city-data.com/city/Manchester-New-Hampshire.html

[Zhang Fei]

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Sanders	Biden	Warren	Bloomberg	Buttigieg	Klobuchar	Yang	Steyer	Gabbard	Bennet	Patrick	Spread
RCP Average	2/2 - 2/9	--	23.8	19.8	14.0	13.0	10.8	4.8	3.3	1.8	1.5	0.5	0.0	Sanders +4.0
Monmouth	2/6 - 2/9	357 RV	26	16	13	11	13	6	4	1	1	0	0	Sanders +10
Quinnipiac	2/5 - 2/9	665 RV	25	17	14	15	10	4	2	1	1	0	0	Sanders +8
Morning Consult	2/4 - 2/9	15346 RV	25	22	11	17	11	3	4	3	1	1	0	Sanders +3
Economist/YouGov	2/2 - 2/4	616 RV	19	24	18	9	9	6	3	2	3	1	0	Biden +5
Morning Consult	1/27 - 2/2	15259 RV	24	28	14	14	6	3	4	3	2	1	1	Biden +4
Harvard-Harris	1/27 - 1/29	980 RV	20	31	12	13	6	3	3	2	1	--	--	Biden +11
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	1/26 - 1/29	428 LV	27	26	15	9	7	5	4	2	2	0	1	Sanders +1
Economist/YouGov	1/26 - 1/28	591 RV	24	26	20	4	7	4	4	1	3	0	1	Biden +2
IBD/TIPP	1/23 - 1/30	336 RV	19	26	13	8	7	3	4	2	1	1	0	Biden +7
Quinnipiac	1/22 - 1/27	827 RV	21	26	15	8	6	7	3	2	1	0	0	Biden +5

[cnsmom]

I think Tulsi might surprise everyone.

[Zathras]

The Hill has started the MSM Bloomberg Coverup.
Look for this to be the talking points for the next couple weeks.

[Zhang Fei]

[The Hill has started the MSM Bloomberg Coverup.
Look for this to be the talking points for the next couple weeks.]

---

I doubt it’s a cover-up. The more his remarks about crime are publicized, the more Biden voters and middle-of-the-road Democrats surge towards Bloomberg. Buttigieg has made a career out of kissing black ass, but his denial of black crime will neither win him the black vote nor endear him to non-black Democrats.

Overall, non-black Democrats probably agree with Bloomberg on crime. He won re-election in NYC twice despite intense black opposition to stop-and-frisk. Blacks are 1/4 of NYC’s voters. That’s roughly what they are in the Democratic primaries.

[I want the USA back]

“dinky”? It’s proportionate to its population. What would this author say about Rhode Island?

[TheConservativeParty]

Bernie will win of course.
The evening coverage will be entertaining.
“Geriatric Communist Wins NH!”

[Zhang Fei]

[“dinky”? It’s proportionate to its population. What would this author say about Rhode Island?]

---

Her point is that candidates have devoted huge % of their financial and human resources to NH because they needed the momentum from it to raise more money so they could continue their campaigns until the convention. Giuliani was blasted out of contention in part because his fund-raising went to zero after he collapsed in the early primary states.

Bloomberg has no such constraints on his campaign. What is true of Bloomberg that is true of no other Democratic candidate is that he has run large organizations before, and he understands how to deploy both cash and people effectively. He crushed Reuters and Thomson in the financial news business despite Reuters having a head start of well over 100 years. Bloomberg LP’s current head count is 20,000 employees.

He also served as NYC’s mayor for 12 years, during which he smacked down NYC’s 25% black minority when they protested his aggressive stop-and-frisk tactics that brought NYC’s murder rate to a low it hadn’t seen in 50 years. He also brought NYC’s public employee unions to heel and limited both their salary gains and attempted cash grabs. While this record is a problem in terms of getting the Democratic nomination, they will help in nabbing independent voters if he does become the Democratic nominee. IMO, the contest for the Democratic nomination will funnel into a 2-horse race - between Bloomberg and Sanders.

[Ancesthntr]

Yeah, maybe.

But in any state with a lot of Black voters he ain’t gonna do so well: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3815535/posts

[1Old Pro]

I think Rachel Dratch is going to surprise everyone in NH.

[Ingtar]

So they would rather have us believe that 2147 people voted Democrat and over 31000 voted Republican?