The Folly of Global Climate Forecasting

It was particularly warm in Northeast Georgia this past week -- no doubt thrilling the earth-worshipping faithful. We’ve also been very wet. After the latest round of rain, temperatures returned to a more winterlike feel. On this past Friday, there were a few murmurings of small amounts of snow on Saturday morning. Of course, any amount of snow in Georgia is news, but as late as Friday evening (scroll to the bottom of the page for the video of the Friday evening/Saturday morning forecast), most forecasts were making little of the potential snowy event.

According to the Friday forecasts, most of north Georgia was only going to get one-half inch to one inch of snow, and temperatures were going to warm into the mid-to-upper forties by Saturday afternoon. Thus, any snow that fell was supposed to melt quickly. We were paying special attention to these forecasts because we were traveling several miles for a karate tournament on Saturday morning.

Even on Saturday morning, forecasters were still saying the snow was going to be minimal and not much of a concern. We left our northeast Georgia house headed southwest about 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning. The snow was just starting to fall. The storm was moving southwest to northeast, so we were heading right into it. As we traveled, the snowfall was getting heavier. The precipitation on radar looked impressive. We were barely thirty minutes down the road, and we started getting nervous.

The snow was quickly piling up and the traffic was slowing down. It was as if we were headed to a global warming conference and Al Gore’s plane had just landed! As we continued on our way we saw several cars on the sides of the road, unable to navigate the snow-covered asphalt.

Weather forecasting has been reduced to an array of various computer models each predicting slightly and in some cases greatly differing predictions. When a major storm is approaching our TV meteorologists huddle before these models like wizards consulting the oracles or seers interpreting the prophecies of Nostradamus. There is a tendency to pick the model with the worst prediction, but then to hedge the prediction with a more moderate one. Thus our last weekend snow storm had predictions of snowfalls anywhere from 3-10” depending on which local TV station you consulted. Actual snow totals were about 6-8” so most could claim their forecast was accurate. If with all our technology a 48 hour weather forecast is only within a wide range of temperatures, snowfall or rain amounts, how the heck can any computer model predict global temperatures within a tenth of a degree decades in advance?

For anyone who paid any attention this shouldn’t come as a surprise as weather patterns world wide been having a crazy streak. It may take just a little longer before reality sets in as to what really is going on.While there may have been a warm up in the Antarctic, camels in Saudi Arabia have been stomping around in snow. All this along with an increase in earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, flooding, droughts and unusual amounts of snow is just an “Appetizer” of what lies ahead as we are once again at the beginning of the repetitive 3600 year signature cycle.

It is the same cycle which gave us the TEN PLAGUEs in ancient Egypt and eventually led to the EXODUS of the Jews. The catch is and was that these unusual events were not just limited to ancient Egypt as ancient Chinese records point to similar events there as well. In other words crazy and unexpected things were taking place world wide at that time, just as they do now. The problem is that we are just at the beginning of this cycle and the worst is yet to come. By no means do I take delight in seeing it come and wish with all my heart to be dead wrong, but what already is taking place speaks for itself.

Needless to say official sources will never admit what really is taking place for obvious reasons, and most people still think this to be a joke, until it will strike home and so far the US has been fairly lucky, in comparison what has been taking place in other parts of the world. And for the ones blaming all those crazy weather patterns on humans and what they may have done wrong in regards to pollution etc., it may be interesting to hear their explanation how this reflects on the increase in earthquakes as well as volcanic eruptions?

And by he way if we go back from the year 2020 plus 1500 BC (3520) the time of the 10 PLAGUES we are just shy of 80 years of the full 3600 cycle. Needless to say a few years one way or another may be lost in the translation, but overall we are pretty close on target for his event, something what most likely will cause a lot of damage and problems.

Seriously... We were driving back from a doctor’s appt the other day. The TV had been on in the patient lounge and I’d never seen a TV weather map look so red with so many boxes. Coming home, it was raining, the wind blowing, the sky was overcast. We pulled into the neighborhood. Suddenly it got much darker, the wind & rain went sideways, debris was hitting the truck. I think we missed the tornado by 5-10 seconds. Looking at the neighborhood damage later that day, we could trace the path and figured out it had passed right in front of us!

The wx channel was darn accurate on this one. Still ain’t trusting them 10-100 years out though.

The availability and use of several forecasting models is a form of competition in which each model and its associated team of programmers and forecasters are tested against each other on an ongoing basis. Gradually, each model gets better, if with inherent limitations due to a lack of sufficient data.

General monthly and seasonal weather forecasts are more reliable because they use abundant historical records and do not attempt day by day, week by week predictions. Or, to put it another way, you are unlikely to be able to predict how your son will do on next week's math quiz, but you likely have a good idea what kind of grades he will average over a school year.

As for global warming, the case against high CO2 levels has a strong geological record and sound physics but lacks enough data to permit reliable short-term forecasts. Worse, scientists convinced that global warming is an existential menace tampered with the data and models like dishonest cops cooking up a case to put away an obviously guilty serial killer. And the remedies demanded against global warming are inadequate, unrealistic, and tilted against the US.

Ten or twenty years from now, the danger of global warming may be obvious, but, if current engineering work bears fruit, we will have new forms of nuclear power available to combat it without embracing socialism and a pre-industrial lifestyle and level of population.

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