numbers from Zhonghan Univ Hospital, study period Jan 1-31. 138 patients, JAMA paper Feb 7.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?c
Did not require ICU and have not died: 102 = 74% but 85 remain hospitalized = 62%
Discharged by Feb 3: 47 = 34%; avg hosp stay 10 days
Remain hospitalized: 85 = 62%
Casualties: 6 (4.3%)(ICU deaths) (30-day period)
ICU admissions: 36 = 26%
ICU - Transferred out to general ward: 10 = 37%
ICU deaths: 6/36 = 17% (preexisting/shock/organ failure)
Overall mortality: 4.3% (ICU deaths will bring up avg) (and also this would be hospital admitted mortality rate not public mortality rate)
To reach 600/day mortality from hospitals with the figures above, could we multiply 138 x 100 for a patient load of 13,800 with 600 admitted each day to keep things static with the overall mortality still at 4.3% and a 17% mortality rate of the 26% admitted to ICU? Is this right? But we need to know how many hospitals the 600 is spread over because a daily patient load of 14K is a lot of beds and 600 is a lot of daily admissions.
If we look at a 600/day mortality as a combination of untreated deaths at home and hospital deaths then can’t we guestimate the number of infected overall, then number of seriously ill, and the number of untreated and the number of mild infected/recovered overall?