[1Old Pro]

What’s the district like, enrollment and past representatives. Does she have a chance?

[moonhawk]

The District has a long Rpublican history. Steve Pearce held the seat for a long time, until he ran for the Senate and lost. the current occupant won by vote harvesting after the count, and a lackluster campaign by Yvette Herrell, the Pub candidate.

So yes, whoever the Republican candidate is has a very good chance, if they fight for it, and don’t put up with cheating.

[CedarDave]

She has a very good chance if she's the Pub candidate. Except for the current Dem representative and one two-year term by a Dem back when Obama was elected, the district has been in Pub or conservative Dem hands since its formation in 1968.

It leans Republican but the Pub running in 2018 lost by the Dem doing last minute voter harvesting. However, the Pub, Yvette Herrell, didn't have full Pub support with some leaders in Alamogordo announcing they wouldn't support her. She is one of the three running this year and touts support of NM sheriffs and minority Pub legislators. The third candidate is also a conservative Pub. You can see the candidates at the Ballotpedia link above.

The district itself encompasses all of southern New Mexico which is generally conservative except for the segment adjoining south ABQ and the Las Cruces area north of El Paso. Since 2000 the Pub presidential candidate has won the district including Trump with 50.1-39.9% of the vote