The Flu Has Killed 10,000 Americans As The World Worries Over Coronavirus

Yahoo News ^ | 2-6-2020 | Rachel Bender

[blam]

Whether you’re watching TV or reading the news, you’d be hard-pressed to avoid a story about coronavirus. And it’s no wonder, since the outbreak — which now affects more than 27 countries outside of China, where the Wuhan coronavirus originated — has been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO).

But there’s another major health threat that seems to be getting lost in the fray: the flu. An estimated 19 million Americans have been infected with the flu so far this season, and 180,000 of them have been hospitalized because of the illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The flu virus has already killed an estimated 10,000 people across the U.S., including 68 children, according to the CDC. In fact, the 2019-2020 flu season is shaping up to be one of the worst in years.

In contrast, the Wuhan coronavirus has infected more than 28,000 people and killed 565, according to data gathered by Johns Hopkins University.

While Iahn Gonsenhauser, MD, chief quality and patient safety officer at Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, tells Yahoo Lifestyle that it’s still too early to classify how virulent the novel coronavirus strain is, he notes that we’re already facing “an epidemic of panic.”

However, “flu is by far the thing we should be worried about because it’s the thing we’re more likely to encounter,” Gonsenhauser says. “If you’re a child, elderly, frail, or have COPD or heart failure, your risk of mortality is actually pretty high with the flu. Your risk of coronavirus— it’s 12 cases in the U.S. — you’re pretty unlikely to come into contact with them.”

One of the reasons why coronavirus is garnering much more attention than the flu has to do with

(snip)

[Boomer]

Good point.

[fuente]

Yeah, that seems to be the case. It is when the hospital capacity is completely overwhelmed that everything goes to pieces. That hasn’t happened outside of China...yet.

[sauropod]

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[dynoman]

I did updates on the 2914 ebola outbreak on the thread linked below. Reality turned out to be way different than projections. Interesting to review and think about in respect to the current coronavirus outbreak.

The updates are the last posts on the thread.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3210773/posts

[Svartalfiar]

Anyone ever seen China react to a virus like the way they are now? And since when has China told us the truth about a damned thing?

China, on average has about 20M deaths per day (~7MM per year). There's NO WAY they're shutting down these massive cities for something that killed only 500 people.

[Svartalfiar]

Exactly right. china is lying. Reports we have seen say 154,000 infected, 28,600 dead. That is still too low as a lot of deaths are listed as other causes due to government mandates. Growing 10% a day.

Long term, we should be able to figure out a decent estimate of the total deaths by comparing their numbers on total deaths/year to previous years, as well as looking at total population numbers. If they end up abandoning Wuhan, you know that only a small part of the populace moved cities, the rest were almost certainly deaths.

[Svartalfiar]

In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.

The estimate as of yesterday (when I had solid-ish numbers) gave us two rates.

The official Chinese numbers were something like 360 deaths to 1100 recoveries, a 29% mortality rate.
The leaked numbers from tencent were ~25M deaths to 600 recoveries, giving a 98.8% mortality rate.

Either of which is, of course, extremely high.

[Svartalfiar]

A bunch of you have the numbers waaaaay below what they are. Calenel's post came the closest to acutally getting it:

The reported death rate of the Coronavirus is 2.5%, meaning that if the same number of people catch the more highly contagious Coronavirus, the number of deaths will be: 22,500,000 x .026 = 585,000.

In China, the corona virus is killing 2.0% of the people who catch it.
In other words - the corona virus is killing TEN TIMES more infected people in China than influenza kills infected people in the USA.

I guess this means a virus with a 2% death rate that very few have been exposed to is no threat to anyone.

Seriously - for those who just think it's the flu - here are more stats: The flu has a death rate of .3%....this death rate near 2-3%.

This assumes we are getting the correct numbers from China. It could be much worse than 2%.

coronavirus death rate = 565/28,000 = 0.0201785714286

***The Wu Han Virus has killed only 638 out of some 31,372 confirmed cases (based on the CCP’s questionable numbers, but we’ll go with those for now). 2.0%. Of the resolved cases, 29% have died and 71% have recovered. There is no reservoir of hosts, every case is new exposure.***

That is a mortality rate of 29%. That is a HUGE number, and can only go higher as we discover more of the real numbers as opposed to the Chinese official numbers. Just think, if that is what China is officially admitting to, what could the real numbers actually be?

The reason all of y'all's numbers are incorrectly low is you're using the wrong dividend. Mortality rate is based on deaths and recoveries amongst those who have run the course of the disease. The massive number of infected people is NOT part of the mortality rate!

Deaths / Infected = USELESS NUMBER
Deaths / (Deaths + Recoveries) = Mortality Rate

[cherry]

folks, we are ALL going to die....there is an old saying..."pneumonia is the blessing of the aged"...

flu and other illnesses hit the frail elderly and the chronically sick the hardest...if it wasn't the flu, it would be something else.....

sure, some younger people get hit by it as well but I would bet that the vast majority have underling disease or other health issues.....

I can attest that almost all the flu admissions to our hospital have not been that sick....many of them get admitted from the nursing home and they won't take them back until they finish their Tamiflu so they sit in their private rooms and get a pill twice a day....

memento mori......

[Freedom56v2]

So you work in health care and have this attitude?

[oldasrocks]

How will we ever know what the deaths were in previous years? They don’t post records of that for anyone.

Another way is to count how many chinese ghosts vote for the dems in the next election.

[fuente]

Look at it like a 14-21 day cycle. As an example: Day 1 is exposure. 4-7 days to symptoms to show, 10 day hospital, 14 days die. If folks don’t die then it takes another week or 2 to fully recover...so death takes 1/2 the time as recovery. Now with the cases doubling every week, then the numbers get off. That’s why looking at deaths per infections from 2 weeks before.

[Svartalfiar]

How will we ever know what the deaths were in previous years? They don’t post records of that for anyone.

I would think there would be some kind of statistic giving that info, a quick search shows random internet replies of anywhere from 7.3MM to 9MM per year. So they gotta be pulling those numbers from somewhere. Or, official Chinese stats on population will eventually show the population loss (although it might be hidden across several years and buried in other deaths).

[fuente]

Look at it like a 14-21 day cycle. As an example: Day 1 is exposure. 4-7 days to symptoms to show, 10 day hospital, 14 days die. If folks don’t die then it takes another week or 2 to fully recover...so death takes 1/2 the time as recovery. Now with the cases doubling every week, then the numbers get off. That’s why looking at deaths per infections from 2 weeks before.

[LilFarmer]

[PA Engineer]

with 61 64 positives so far

Updated a couple of ours ago. Clock reset to 14 days. :-(

[Freedom56v2]

I don’t recall the Chinese government (or any government) taking the measures they area taking...

Lockdown of cities larger than New York.

Passports allowing one person to go outside every 7 days per household.

Cessation of sales of fever reducing meds and flu symptom reducing remedies.

Going door-to-door to find infected.

Delaying start of school and work after Chinese New Year.

Building hospitals. Turning other facilities into triage hospitals.

Spraying the streets?

Normal flu?

Look at what they are doing, not what they are saying.

[Svartalfiar]

That’s why looking at deaths per infections from 2 weeks before.

Which is essentially the same thing I said. Infections from two weeks ago are currently either 1) dead, or 2) recovered.

[fuente]

The data I saw was about 24-28 days to recovery. Half that to death. Recovery is always lagging death.

[zeestephen]

Re: “Of the resolved cases, 29% have died and 71% have recovered.”

Source, please?

Also - why should I trust your source more than the Chinese source?

Thanks.