Posted on 02/06/2020 5:15:12 PM PST by NRx
The repatriation of 565 Japanese citizens from Wuhan, China, in late January offered scientists an unexpected opportunity to learn a bit more about the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) raging in that city. To avoid domestic spread of the virus, Japanese officials screened every passenger for disease symptoms and tested them for the virus after they landed. Eight tested positive, but four of those had no symptoms at all, says epidemiologist Hiroshi Nishiura of Hokkaido University, Sapporo—which is a bright red flag for epidemiologists who are trying to figure out what the fast-moving epidemic has in store for humanity. If many infections go unnoticed, as the Japanese finding suggests, that vastly complicates efforts to contain the outbreak.
Two months after 2019-nCoV emerged—and with well over 20,000 cases and 427 deaths as of 4 February—mathematical modelers have been racing to predict where the virus will move next, how big a toll it might ultimately take, and whether isolating patients and limiting travel will slow it. But to make confident predictions, they need to know much more about how easily the virus spreads, how sick it makes people, and whether infected people with no symptoms can still infect others.
...With the limited information so far, scientists are sketching out possible paths that the virus might take, weighing the likelihoods of each, and trying to determine the fallout. “We’re at this stage where defined scenarios and the evidence for and against them are really important because it allows people to plan better,” says Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. These scenarios break into two broad categories: The world gets the virus under control—or it doesn’t.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencemag.org ...
Quarantine the known carriers. Vaccinate everyone else. If the virus has been identified, a vaccine can be made.
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A vaccine would take a couple months, I’m pretty sure.
It takes a couple of years to develop a vaccine. I don’t want to be a test suject either.
Is there a pharmaceutical expert in the house?
Is there a pharmaceutical expert in the house?
Judging from this thread, there are several, and they are just about as useful as economists. (My first degree is in economics so I can get away with saying that without too much malice)
“and whether isolating patients and limiting travel will slow it.”
You don’t need math to figure that out. It is pure common sense.
bookmark
“Quarantine the known carriers. Vaccinate everyone else. If the virus has been identified, a vaccine can be made.”
There’s no vaccine.
If it is like SARS, and it is very similar, the vaccine may thwart infection but immunization side effects cause lung damage, so it’s not a viable vaccine.
Read my post 10.
Bookmark. Two suspect cases in iowa. I fear it is here, and there is little to do about it
Watched a program today where one fellow-dont know the field off hand, but he said that this virus will? become endemic?
I guess meaning that it will evolve and continue to infect humans by transmission by human to human contact.
As the saying goes. Go far, stay long, and return very late.
I don’t see Iowa on the map
The DNC just did away with it.
My living is traveling from state to state...fair to fair. We do fairs for a living. As you can imagine, we depend on happy crowds for a living. Keeping a very close eye. So far this is on the back burner here in the US...so far so good.
Quarantining returning citizens is a very wise move and frankly, I could imagine that returning citizens don’t mind. Two weeks of hot meals and a cot is a very small price to pay to avoid entering a foreign medical system. And...if by chance one does become sick...there are resources (at the moment) to provide the best of care.
I have a few more weeks before we hit the road. First stop is Yuma. Nice dry desert. Just gotta keep plugging away. I can’t get myself all balled up in worry...but I can pay attention.
:)
Was announced on KWQC that there were two suspected cases in Iowa under self quarantine. Will see if I can find the link
It’s a corona virus, like the common cold. There has never been a vaccinr for that. The hope here is that it burns out like SARS and MERS.
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