Posted on 02/06/2020 2:10:49 PM PST by janetjanet998
30,811 confirmed cases worldwide, including 635 fatalities.
update: Canada rescue flight -
176 boarded and off the ground enroute to Vancouver. ‘Several dozen’ Canadians who were overflow have been offered seats on US flight. The report says that the Canadians on the US flight will end up in Trenton? Plane interior looks like normal plane with Canadian flag hung on the bulkhead.
Another Canadian flight is being scheduled for the 10th.
GlobalNews:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg6dHC0cpo0
update: life at March AFB for evacuees:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9zqclaQ3UE
update:
ARIRANG News (Seoul Korea):
SoKorea total:24 - “these 24 cases have come into contact with 1386 people” Case 24 was evacuee, 28yo male with several negatives prior to symptoms (2nd evacuee case) Local home shopping channel offices closed and off air until Sat - several new cases worked there
overnight China numbers:
31,161 confirmed of that 22,112 are out of Hubei province
73 addl deaths and over 3,000 new confirmed
1500 discharged
at least 636 deaths (sic)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_kcOQTszVs
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
BREAKING: Singapore reports 3 more cases of coronavirus with no links to China or previous cases, outbreak alert level raised to 2nd highest level
I think they realized CCP had lost control of the situation (and that alone makes it a scary one) when they quarantined tens of millions of people.
Fomites from somewhere maybe.
I am reminded to ask because I have a suspicion...don’t most of our municipal water treatment chemicals come from China?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.
see also my post #30 here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3814339/posts?page=30#30
“First of all, new coronary pneumonia is not the same as SARS or avian influenza. In many cases, SARS is very severe when the patient comes up. However, the early onset of new crown patients is not very dangerous, but in the later period, there will be an acceleration, and the patient will soon enter a state of multiple organ failure, which will be a storm of inflammation. Once in this state, it is difficult for our treatment to pull it back. This is completely different from the past. Many patients do not die from the lungs. Because the hospital has ECMO (Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Support), a ventilator, and various treatment strategies, which can replace the patient’s lung function. But many patients die of multiple organ failure outside the lungs, which is very different from the past.
Why is there such a sudden acceleration?
Zhong Ming said that the patient’s body may have initiated an inflammatory storm, which caused the failure of various organs. What they observed is that many patients have elevated markers of myocardial damage, so the virus is likely to damage the heart muscle itself, similar to myocarditis, and may damage many other organs....
However, this disease has a characteristic that some patients may be relatively mild in the first two days, and suddenly worsen on the third day or later. If it is not treated in time, it may die. This may be related to patient infection and the resulting “inflammatory storm”.
“Inflammation storm” is that the patient’s infection activates the body’s immune cells, causing excessive damage to the immune cells. Normal immunity is protection, and excessive immunity is damage, which not only causes damage to the lungs, but also causes damage to the kidneys, liver, and heart muscle.
For example, after our body is infected, the body’s white blood cells and lymphocytes will start secreting a cytokine. The cytokine acts like a correspondent or herald, attracting these spare white blood cells and lymphocytes distributed in other parts of the muscle to the lesion site, killing the microbial virus and bacteria. In the middle, it will release an inflammatory mediator. Moderate release is normal. Excessive release will not only kill viruses and bacteria, but also cause damage to normal cells.
Zhou Zheng said that after the “inflammatory storm”, the patient’s condition tends to turn sharply, and soon he will have unconsciousness, rapid breathing, and then there will be decreased blood oxygen saturation, even coagulation dysfunction, oliguria and anuria, and elevated transaminase . Various organs fail, not just the lungs, which is the reason for the high mortality and mortality of many patients with new coronary pneumonia, especially the elderly.
...Zhou Zheng said that in a certain period of time, a small amount of hormones can be used to suppress this inflammatory response, but this varies from person to person..”
Interesting, thanks for posting.
Would explain people falling in the streets...
Ayup.
IIRC SARS didn’t do this.
The reporters at the NYT have no idea how fatality rates are calculated. Those are not fatality rates. They are just confirmed dead divided by confirmed cases, which is a number that really only has relevance once the virus has stopped spreading (clearly not the case here).
The calculations of fatality rates are very complicated, when dealing with incomplete, inaccurate information. The best guestimates, though, have to at least take into account the median time between diagnosis and death (it takes far more than this to get anywhere useful, but it is at least a starting point). Then, you can take confirmed deaths and divide by the number of deaths “that many” days ago. It is by no means perfect, but at least gets you closer to an accurate, meaningful number. (And don’t forget that the time between diagnosis and death changes drastically from area to area, and over time).
As far as the discrepancy between the areas, it can be explained by a huge number of factors. In all likelihood, though, it is because the gap from confirmation to death is wildly different. For example, in an area like a foreign country where the virus hasn’t taken hold yet, people tend to get tested much earlier (no backlog of cases, many people caught by screening, no testing backlog, etc.), and also tend to live longer, even if they eventually die (access to more doctors, ICUs, equipment, etc.). These factors can dramatically effect the time from diagnosis to death (by quite a number of days), and this increased gap can cause a wildly different deaths/confirmed ratio, even if nothing else is different.
The Independent
@Independent
Cruise ship passengers in US being loaded into ambulances and tested for corona virus
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1225775154455883776
North Korea has apparently found a cure for the virus. Its called a 14.5MM anti-aircraft gun.
The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.
The DR that died was infected 3 weeks ago...so there will be a lag time from “new cases” to any deaths...but I’m sure that the areas outside Hubei are catching more of the overall cases including the mild cases too
JAMA releasing several papers tomorrow.
Anthony Fauci discusses the latest developments in the global 2019-nCoV outbreak with JAMA Editor Howard Bauchner. Originally broadcast on Thursday, February 6 at 09:30 CST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg5PjvbVioA
Primary questions for CDC investigation - asymptomatics - method of transfer - what kind of impact on testing? when do AS get carriage of virus in the nasal passages, is that transmissible, is it replication competent, or just PCR identifiable? is transmission only respiratory borne? is stool virus live virus or just PCR? all answers we don’t know
no direct proven effective antivirals, those used are used on compassionate basis
early cases - symptoms to hospitalization 5 days. Days to ICU 7 days from hospitalization, onset to intubation/ARDS 8 days. Virus seems to adapt.
travel related cases outside of china that transmit to other people seem to have less serious disease but data too small to call a difference
children and infants all have done well - post-natal infection could be within one day? (30hr old baby tested positive)
effect on blood supply? transfusions? no determinations yet
all questions are cascading questions that haven’t been answered
next 2-4 wks? pattern continues to accelerate, will it turn the corner in a month-encouraging, or continuing to spread? Normal coronavirus should recede in spring but would rather it turn around on it’s own kinetics. next 2-4wks ‘absolutely critical’ to answer.
now that Kobe, Iowa, State of the Union, Impeachment are falling out of the news cycle maybe more will be paying attention
here is a decent piece this morning from CBS
https://twitter.com/RamyInocencio/status/1225781947017785345
May be coming to a doctor's office/clinic/hospital near all of us soon. One more thing. A neighbor of ours had to be taken to the hospital last night (prayers up!) and the EMT's had zero protection on for this virus, nor did the firefighters who showed up. Consider that.
Not bad. Thanks for posting. Still not touching the 800 pound gorilla, though, and that is that these official numbers appear to be just measuring the ability to test, and that the real numbers (both dead and infected), are clearly massively higher than claimed.
I wish they would do more to show people how it kills, how long it takes for people to go from symptoms to death, how much advanced medical care is needed to help severe patients — anything to differentiate this in peoples mind from the flu.
Unfortunately, most people I have talked to are convinced that this is just another hype — that western healthcare will cure this, that only a few people have died, etc. Hopefully they are right, but if they are not, then the overwhelming majority of people are not in any way psychologically prepared for what could happen (a marked departure from most of history, such as 100 years ago, where people knew that these types of things really do happen every now and then).
NBC News
@NBCNews
8 more Americans from a quarantined cruise ship off Japan have been confirmed to have the coronavirus, bringing the total number of US citizens diagnosed on the liner to 11, cruise operator says.
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