And even data on recoveries isn’t nearly enough. These calculations are much more complicated than that. For example, once hospitals start to become logistical nightmares, definitions of “recovered” can vary tremendously. The infected over time, are not a static body of people (there can be massive variances in things like overall health, age, genes, over time). Early in an outbreak, hospitals tend to see only the sickest patients, but as infrastructure breaks down, the sickest patients are unable to get to hospitals (or unable to wait). And so on. Even with good data, the equations are very complex. With data like we have, they are utterly worthless.
Honestly, we have no idea, based on the data that we have, whether the fatality rate is .005%, or 50%. The only thing we have to go off of is that the people who have accurate numbers seem to be panicking, and they don’t have an incentive to panic, nor are they panicky types of people.
“The only thing we have to go off of is that the people who have accurate numbers seem to be panicking, and they don’t have an incentive to panic, nor are they panicky types of people.”
Precisely why we have these threads...
I’ve never, in my entire life, seen chicoms behave this way.