Wuhan medic: 'Many more infections than official numbers show'

Deutsche Welle ^ | February 4, 2020 | Deutsche Welle

[familyop]

DW: Do you trust the official numbers of infections and deaths?

Jiesi Luo*: I think there are many more infections and deaths from coronavirus than have been officially reported. When preliminary tests determine that a patient has a lung sickness, the nucleic acid test (NAT), which detects viruses, cannot always be carried out because the waiting list is too long. The patient is therefore not diagnosed.

Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus...

*Jiesi Luo (pseudonym) is a medical technician at a hospital in Wuhan. He declined to give his name due to security concerns.

[Texas Fossil]

I did not say or infer that a dead body should be tested. That is nuts.

I stated that the stats would be lower if they were unable to administer the NAT test. And past that, I’ve read that in some cases outside of China they had to administer the test several times before a positive result was found in a suspect case.

[Truthoverpower]

There’s some 11 million people in this city of Luhan let’s just start with that

Second we have a communist government that doesn’t mind poisoning starving and murdering its own people

The big lie, however , is not coming out of the communists

The big lie is that the government is the only thing that can help you with your health care

Nothing could be further from the truth

There are over 100,000 iatrogenic , or hospital caused deaths, every year

The amount of suffering , needless hospitalization , Quality-of-life decrease death and injury caused by the over prescription of drugs is incalculable

Coronavirus the flu all of these are called viruses

Viruses are single celled organisms that are essentially small bits of DNA and RNA

Viruses along with bacteria are all killed by colloidal silver

This is not in debate -this is been well proven through numerous multi million dollar studies

And yet what does the government say?

Oh it doesn’t work -inject yourself with this poison instead - vaccinate !

[BenLurkin]

What the article says is that many sick people are not being tested due to shortages. So these sick people may or may not have 2019-nCoV.

If (big if) sick persons who do have 2019-nCoV are not in need of hospitilization, and for whatever reason are either not being tested or are avoiding being tested, and big if (yikes that’s two now) they are recoving at home then the overall mortaility rate is lower than reported.

Now, the article does mention people dying of “lung sickness” who have not been diagnosed, how many total and hiw many are attributable to 2019-nCoV is unstated.

[PIF]

When they say 500 deaths, they men 5000.

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or 5 million. Pick a number - the death rate can be as high as 40% I was told by another poster.

Like the guy said if the death was not tested, then its just an ordinary death. Is there some place the bodies are stick piled that they could be counted later? - no they are cremated and the ashes disposed of. Relatives will not talk or question, since that would be unheroic and anti-patriotic - not to mention a police visit and a viscous clubbing along with loss of social privileges. Will we ever know the true number of dead? Yes, right after the CCP releases the real number of dead from 1989 (official 2000+), unofficial 10,000+

[PIF]

There is no NONE ZERO accurate information coming out of China and never will be

The only way to gauge this flu is what stats are released by western countries for their patients and, then, after it passes, extrapolate back to China. Everything else is worthless and a waste of time number wise.

[Black Agnes]

All true.

I’ve also read that China has said they’ll pay for coronavirus patient’s medical costs.

It behooves them not to have too many coronavirus patients, no?

[sauropod]

.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Thanks. I misread the article. I reread it and it says that, if the NAT test cannot be administered to a sick person and that person dies, then the death is not attributed to 2019-nCoV. They are NOT testing dead bodies to see if they had the virus.

[PIF]

So many people here seem to imagine China is basically honest and some sort of European country with a funny language and more people.

here's a short refresher course from 1989 for the above people.

[Black Agnes]

I suspect right now a lot of political dissidents are being ...tested for coronavirus. Using the ‘transition metals’ test.

[Texas Fossil]

Correct

[Pearls Before Swine]

10x dead could mean either a higher mortality rate, or an overall higher rate of infection, or (most likely) both, equally weighted.

[lepton]

Probably true which, possibly, means that the overall mortality rate (based upon the outcome of hospitalizations) is lower than reported.

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Sort of. Reported mortality rate is a case of bad math. As noted here, the bad math is on top of unreliable numbers.

The reported mortality rate is about 2%, which is calculated by dividing the number of dead by what is essentially the growth in numbers of sick. That’s just silly.

A mortality rate is the portion of those who get sick who will eventually die from it, or who will die from it in a defined time period. The only way to calculate that is to either compare the number of those who die to those who recover, or at the least to compare the results (death or recovery) for a given cohort. The first way there leads to calculations of about a 40% mortality rate for those who are sick enough to seek treatment. It is the proportion of those who actually get sick compared to those who seek treatment, as well as the issues with un-ascribed deaths which make those numbers highly uncertain.

In another post, using various assumptions we can see how the he mortality rate could be anywhere from 0.04%, up to that 40% or higher, which would only apply to China in its current conditions.

[lepton]

the vast majority of the 19k would be those who are still sick, and have neither recovered nor died. It makes the 2% number just silly.

Because the time to die from the disease is shorter than the time to recover from the disease, the dead/(dead + recovered) number has declined from near 70% to the 37% (using the numbers you cite from Johns Hopkins) over the past few days.

[familyop]

Coronavirus sends Asia’s social media censors into overdrive
https://www.itnews.com.au/news/coronavirus-sends-asias-social-media-censors-into-overdrive-537507

[familyop]

"The only way to gauge this flu is what stats are released by western countries for their patients..."

Except that here, in the U.S.A., it appears that only people with lab tests are counted for infections and deaths (see flu statistics). Cause of death (without a test): heart disease, pneumonia, asthma, etc. I know someone who was diagnosed a few years ago as having had an asthma attack after being hospitalized with pneumonia that resulted from a flu. The case occurred in a popular tourist area.

It looks like our own medical racket will count cases with methods similar to those of the Chinese--confirmed (tested) cases only. So we may never know the truth except for what we each see in our immediate locales and from news stories that draw accusations of fake news from various market and political interests.

[Svartalfiar]

If (big if) sick persons who do have 2019-nCoV are not in need of hospitilization, and for whatever reason are either not being tested or are avoiding being tested, and big if (yikes that’s two now) they are recoving at home then the overall mortaility rate is lower than reported.

Sure, but if, like this article says, you have many cases where the patient dies but the NAT test was never run, then they are never included in the Coronavirus death stats. In that case the overall mortality rate should be a lot higher than the official one.

[Svartalfiar]

In another post, using various assumptions we can see how the he mortality rate could be anywhere from 0.04%, up to that 40% or higher, which would only apply to China in its current conditions.

Or, it could be even higher. In another article about the leaked tencent numbers, the math gives us a 98+% mortality rate. (Something like 270 recovered to 24,500 dead.)Of course, that doesn't include people immune/resistant who never go to the hospital and recover on their own, which drops the mortality rate to maybe 83% or so. Still TWICE as high as the max number you're pulling.

[Svartalfiar]

Here ya go: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3813782/posts?page=137#137

But hey, it's nice to see someone else on here who knows mortality rate is dead vs recovered, NOT dead vs sick.

[lepton]

Thanks.

If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.8% (100/12,700), for a 100% fatal toxin.