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"There is a strong likelihood that in the next few days we will see some pretty decent growth in the numbers of recovering people, but please realize I cannot say that with certainty."

Immediately after a few public comments a couple of days ago about the death rate being higher than the recovery rate, the recovery rate rose quickly and surpassed the death rate.

Those numbers from the Chinese government, by the way, indicate people who were tested and treated--a very small portion of the infected in China. According to many Chinese people and foreign nationals there, most people couldn't even get tested. Testing was required before diagnosis and treatment. Those who die outside of hospitals are eventually picked up and cremated without being included in statistics.

About all that we really have to go on other than statements from various and diverse individuals in China is the set of actions by the governments of nations and levels of concern indicated by those actions. Big investors and global companies around the world are terrified more than anything of losing money today. They sponsor the media and contribute to the politicians.

Those numbers from the Chinese government, by the way, indicate people who were tested and treated--a very small portion of the infected in China. According to many Chinese people and foreign nationals there, most people couldn't even get tested. Testing was required before diagnosis and treatment. Those who die outside of hospitals are eventually picked up and cremated without being included in statistics.

D1, This is what I was referring to with regards to a Communist Government in our discussion the other day.

They cannot be trusted, you cannot take their words at face value, you cannot believe them.

Communists, Marxists, Socialists, Progressives, and Democrats think nothing of lying at the drop of the hat and it is part and parcel of their approach to communication.

This scenario, as presented by familyop, is exactly what I believe is happening given the reports that have leaked out of Communist China.

Since a week ago, we have been pretty sure that there are thousands of cases not documented. I am sure some of those patients have died. It’s impossible for me to speculate with any precision what’s going on there, beyond what both you and I agree to. We just can’t quantify it.

The 2% ball park figures are suspect. I can understand that. None the less, we do have a body of people who we can take meaningful information away from.

We have those 183 people abroad (from China), living outside China. On the 27th, that figure was 63.

So far, out of that group, one person has died. That’s 1 out of 183.

To this point, that’s a mortality rate of 0.546%

Will that figure grow? I think so. And while some nations may suffer more than that 1% figure I mentioned in my comments, I don’t see that happening here.

Remember also that this is a new unknown disease. It is only natural for them to want to put these new patients into an intensive care unit so they can be monitored.

They want all the detail about these folks they can get.

I’m not sure that each person in an ICU is “on his/her death bed” so to speak. They may be there in large part for observation, to track this illness in minute detail so they can figure out what the norms are for future patients.

Future patients may not need to be in an ICU once they know how to treat them. This may turn into something that can be treated with IVs for 48 hours, and then sent home.

I only say that, because several cases have evidently been treated with success in short order.

I appreciate your thoughts on this.