and ... fomites and surfaces carry this disease for
at least 1 to 2 weeks
and what is the implication if sterilization of ventilators
is not 100%?
Posted on 01/31/2020 8:50:37 PM PST by catnipman
The point is.
They knew something was up.
Something they needed hazmat for.
That would involve people travelling.
Jan 1 is when they shut down that wet market. In spite of only a little more than half of the people in the initial outbreak having even visited there.
and ... fomites and surfaces carry this disease for
at least 1 to 2 weeks
and what is the implication if sterilization of ventilators
is not 100%?
“In the present case every coronavirus case who needs a ventliator gets one even if that means someone else doesn’t.”
And you’ve seen triage advice for this where?
Has HHS or CDC issued such triage advice?
As a reference point, the biggest local hospital near me only has 808 beds TOTAL. They brag about the neonatal and pediatric ICUs but are utterly mute about how many ICU beds available for adults.
In short, things could get bad. But they aren't bad yet here in the west, and we can count on victims getting the best care possible. They will be a good test of the outcome when care is optimal. The numbers from China reflect suboptimal care. We don't know how suboptimal.
Wow. I don’t know about you, but I’m planning on spending the rest of my life in the future.
That is true. Up until yesterday the recovered numbers were less than the death toll.
The recovered cases are at this moment reporting out larger than the death toll for the first time. Hopefully, that margin will spread over the next few days.
I will be more comfortable when that comparison holds true and expands.
We can’t determine all that much at this point, but some signs do look promising.
Where are you getting the 1 to 2 week range for fomites?
Has that been published anywhere?
I’m surprised you can see your computer screen.
We’ve already had tertiary transmission that doesn’t involve Chinese nationals.
Travel from china should have been shut down a week or ten days ago.
It wasn’t.
We should shut down international travel now.
But we likely won’t for another week or ten days.
In the ‘wargaming’ scenarios of disease transmission/pandemics, governments nearly always do the right thing about a week or ten days too late. Because pandemic is always preferable to recession for those in charge. Nevermind the recession/depression actually caused by the pandemic.
If (if) this thing progresses, we will be in the middle of a full scale pandemic ramp up world wide and a full scale epidemic in this country.
Personally I’m not wishcasting here. our economy is already headed for a half gainer because the chicoms is in total disarray. people vote their pocketbook. If the economy is in the toilet and a bunch of people have million dollar ICU bills they’ll never be able to pay...bernie might win in November. That terrifies me at least as much as a pandemic.
American MD’s haven’t really had to triage writ large before.
If there are ever way more patients than can get care, chaos will ensue. Some MD’s will simply be unable to function. They’re human after all.
47.4% fatalities! Woohoo! I’m liking the trend!!!!
They shut down travel from the rural area where it broke out and then they killed all the susceptible animals, birds and swine, in the area. PETA had a cow about it.
They were able to keep the outbreak down to under 8,096 worldwide, according to WHO, and only 7,083 in China and Hong Kong. The blessing then, in 2003, was that it was started in a rural area, not in a major city such as Wuhan which has almost 15 million in its metropolitan area. Of course they have now had the experience of what happened in 2003 as a model of what to do.
Those who are infected that wind up in an ICU are always the worst cases. That does not mean they are the average infected person. You cannot make a judgement on overall mortality of any disease by those who are admitted to an ICU ward. Nor can you believe the mortality rates of any disease reported in medical text books due to the fact that cases reported there are written up by professors from teaching hospitals and they only encounter the worst cases, again, not meeting the average patient.
I first ran into this phenomena when my eleven year old daughter was diagnosed with Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), an autoimmune disease. Our physician who diagnosed it gave us a text book to read on it and the second paragraph said that five years after diagnosis, 55% of SLE patients were still surviving. WHAT?! That translated into a 45% five year mortality rate. Talk about getting scared to death. BUT, that again was because these doctors were only seeing the sufferers who had the worst cases. The vast majority of SLE patients are nowhere near that bad and can live a long life without ever being at risk of dying from it.
Very promising, with practice the suite of treatments and the recovery rate have been improving on a daily basis.
Good news indeed!
Yes, and returning travelers should have been quarantined.
If the economy is in the toilet and a bunch of people have million dollar ICU bills they’ll never be able to pay...bernie might win in November.
People won't get bills by November. There are extra resources to apply to hospital care for the new virus. I don't recall any poor people with Ebola in America getting a hospital bill. However the other part of your scenario is possible: markets tank deeply and the people blame it on the administration.
My WAG from the timing of this is we have time to go quite low in the markets and still recover. The markets will need to recover by late spring at the latest. A deep correction will quite easily lead to a large boom.
I’m amazed at that people who think chickens aren’t born shrinkwrapped!
The current mortality rate of documented cases is 2.154%.
If we wish to address the issue of China’s fullness of reporting, we can look at the 164 cases outside of China, of which no one has died yet.
I think you pointed out that some may in time. I agree.
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