[lepton]

So, 213 people have died, and 171 have recovered...the remainder of the 9000 are still sick. How does one calculate a “low” fatality rate?

[the OlLine Rebel]

Because fatality rate means how many die OUT OF HOW MANY WERE SICK.

Good God, why is this falsehood of comparing recovered to dead propagating as meaningful?

[sleddogs]

Hubei province
(including Wuhan) Cases 7,153 Deaths 249 Serious 956 Critical 338

If half of those critical and serious die that will leave a fatality rate of over 10% if most eventually die it will be closer to 20%.

[Pearls Before Swine]

So, 213 people have died, and 171 have recovered...the remainder of the 9000 are still sick. How does one calculate a “low” fatality rate?

One waits a couple of weeks, in order to get a real estimate of the death/recovery rate. Its almost impossible to do in the early stages of an outbreak, because the newly discovered infected outweigh those who have been through the disease and therapy process, for better or worse.

[The Antiyuppie]

“So, 213 people have died, and 171 have recovered...”

Then the problem is quite a bit worse than I thought. :)