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To: lepton

Because fatality rate means how many die OUT OF HOW MANY WERE SICK.

Good God, why is this falsehood of comparing recovered to dead propagating as meaningful?


18 posted on 01/31/2020 2:33:55 PM PST by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs)
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To: the OlLine Rebel

The quality of the numbers can’t be assessed with certainty at this point, but they look to be mediocre to junk. That comparison does have some logic to it.


29 posted on 01/31/2020 2:38:26 PM PST by Hieronymus ("I shall drink--to the Pope, if you please,-still, to Conscience first, and to the Pope afterwards.")
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To: the OlLine Rebel

The point is, it is early in the cycle and using the 2.2% figure is misleading. Without a doubt, the 60% figure is misleading - even assuming China has started telling the truth on their numbers.

The fatality rate is not a very certain number at all in this part of the cycle. While more comforting though, the 2.2% figure and the 60% figure are similarly uncertain, since the 2.2% figure is more based upon the spread rate than it is the actual fatality rate.

Because fatality rate means how many die OUT OF HOW MANY WERE SICK.


Exactly. Not how many will eventually die of out of those who ARE sick.


37 posted on 01/31/2020 2:50:22 PM PST by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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