Coronavirus Epidemic Update 7: Global Health Emergency Declared, Viral Shedding

Medcram.com ^ | 1/31/2020 | Medcram

[DannyTN]

Video at link.

[DannyTN]

Interesting review of the timelines involved in the spread of Coronavirus in Germany. Patients were active shedders of the virus both before and after symptoms.

Good news is that the incubation period may be shorter than thought, and tests could detect that. The bad news is that asymptomatic transmission is huge.

[laplata]

Thanks for posting this. The video is very informative.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Infectious Disease - Wuhan (airborne pneumonia virus)- asymptomatic transmission

Jim Noble:" The New England Journal of Medicine published overnight (epub)
two very well documented cases of transmission by an asymptomatic individual,
one of which led to a cluster (in Germany).
Accounts are free at nejm.org, yes, their politics are horrible
but this real-time publishing is very helpful and informative."

"The implication, already taken up by India, is that arriving travelers from China
must be isolated for 14 days."

Further comments by FReep posters demonstrate much controversy on infectious issues.
Well worth your time to review all postings as there is much which still remains unknown about this virus.
The fact that there is now evidence of asymptomatic transmission indicates that perhaps current healthcare testing may not be fully adequate.
There have been some instances where over-the-counter flu medications may have falsified thermal testing results.

[null and void]

We knew asymptomatic infected could be infective. Nice to have it confirmed, I guess...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[LilFarmer]

The asymptomatic shedding was also detected in the Japan cluster, and the Ontario man’s wife. And a 10 year old in China.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Our Chinese neighbors, with two babies (2 and 1yo), went to China for their New Year and have not returned.
We are worried.
I started pulling the mail sticking out of their box and holding it for them.
They are the nicest neighbors I ever had even though I have had neighbors that I knew better personally.
Their little girl often had her hair put up in a tuft, so adorable.

[DannyTN]

you might want to wear gloves handling their mail, just in case they get some from the mainland.

I hope they are safe.

[Nailbiter]

flr

[Berlin_Freeper]

I’ll look into it thanks.

[DannyTN]

The CDC just ordered a 14 day quarantine for the evacuate-es from Wuhan.

[palmer]

The fact that there is now evidence of asymptomatic transmission indicates that perhaps current healthcare testing may not be fully adequate.

The testing is adequate. The protocol will need updating. Currently you have to be symotomatic and travel from China, or in contact with a traveler from China, to have samples sent for testing. Now it is possible that just traveling from China or contact with a traveler from China is enough reason to get tested.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

palmer :" The testing is adequate. The protocol will need updating. "

True that !
Similar to the Ebola virus protocol that needed updating by the CDC years ago.
Health officials may need to ask if any OTC flu medications have been taken.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Prepper ping - Wuhan airborne virus - asymptomatic transmission

Further comments by FReep posters demonstrate much controversy on infectious issues.
Well worth your time to review all postings as there is much
which still remains unknown about this virus.
The fact that there is now evidence of asymptomatic transmission indicates
that perhaps current healthcare testing may not be fully adequate.
There have been some instances where over-the-counter flu medications may have falsified thermal testing results.

[PJ-Comix]

So far I have seen NO new stats on Coronavirus since yesterday. Every day for past week, we have been getting updates by noon but today so far...NADA. WHY?????

[grey_whiskers]

Yah, you noticed that too?

I am afraid something big is about to drop.

[PJ-Comix]

I thought for sure that Lookner at Agenda Free TV would be covering the latest stats since he has been doing that EVERY DAY but today...nope. I also Googled and got a lot of Coronavirus stories but NO updated stats.

Something is up. Something in China.

[Raebie]

Maybe the US asked them to hold off until after the presser.

[grey_whiskers]

"interim guidance from. cdc. 25-32% icu rate 11-15% case fatality rate"

and

"11-15% cfr in hospitalized pt so somewhat skewed"

My interpretation: 25%-32% of those who get it, need to go to the ICU.

Of *those*, 11%-15% fatality.

1) ICU rate will crush any hospital if this gets out into the general population.

2) multiplying those two numbers ==> 2.75% to 4.8% fatality rate

Thanks, Mom MD.

[Mom MD]

a little different. 23-32% of those hospitalized will go to icu and 11–15% of those hospitalized will die. still not good....

[PJ-Comix]

If we don’t get those stats by midnight then something BIG is up in China. My suspicion is it could be that the stats had such a big jump that China is reluctant to release for fear of causing even worse panic.