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To: janetjanet998
Of course this virus isn't SARS, and that experience isn't this experience.

But these charts may shed light on the potential progression and path of the disease. These charts cover the number of SARS cases in Hong Kong...

...and the case fatality rate (CFR) over time across three countries.

What is clear, is that the CFR in HK started out very high - very Ebola-like - then comes down and hits a long-run average as the volume of cases rise.

The same "mean-reversion" happened in Canada.

Taiwan's experience is interesting: things were well until an undiagnosed hospital worker (who boarded at the hospital!) spread SARS throughout the hospital wards.

If this current situation is like HK or Canada, then things will get better. If the situation is like Taiwan, they'll get worse.... then even out.

33 posted on 01/30/2020 3:08:09 PM PST by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: All

Union tells American airline pilots not to fly to China


37 posted on 01/30/2020 3:12:04 PM PST by janetjanet998
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