Posted on 01/30/2020 5:26:08 AM PST by Hostage
A lot of extra red added to your tracking map today.:(
Typical misinformation here, and on other websites I browse.
10% mortality rate? Nope, latest from CDC was estimated 2-3%. *But* that’s not accounting for deaths or the hundreds, if not thousands that were infected and only developed mild symptoms (and recovered). Could be higher or lower than the 2-3%.
Another gem was the RO being stated as high as 4 plus by someone on Twatter.
Finally, comparing China and the US in regards to infectious disease spread is apples/oranges. China: urban areas packed like sardines, air pollution that resembles an early 20th century Pittsburgh and everyone smokes like a damn freight train.
Important to balance fear with facts/knowledge. Half the reason I don’t put a ton of stock into Twatter videos or tweets.
Unfortunately, our health care system uses a “push” supply system, only getting the supplies and equipment they need right then, plus a little bit.
To illustrate this, every flu season nationally we need about 100,000 respirators to keep people alive. But we only have about 102,000. So if it is a bad flu season, some people will have to do without.
Granted, hospitals would be hard pressed to get enough supplies and equipment on their own and in a hurry, and would lose a lot of money if they got them and didn’t need them.
However, the federal government could *easily* get just the “surge” amount of just those things that were needed, and if it turned out they weren’t needed, no problem.
Coronavirus is a great example for this. That is, we know what supplies and equipment are going to be needed within weeks or months, when and if it hits the US with some ferocity.
So President Trump could order surge production of these, granted at surge prices of course, so that our hospitals could get what they need.
1/31
“Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
Update:
(snip)”...Therefore, in the absence of substantial public health interventions that are immediately applied, further international seeding and subsequent local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings. Should containment fail and local transmission is established, mitigation measures according to plans that had been drawn up and executed during previous major outbreaks, such as those of SARS, MERS, or pandemic influenza, could serve as useful reference templates.””
(snip)”...The overriding epidemiological priority to inform public health control would be to compile and release a line list of suspected, possible, probable, and confirmed cases and close contacts that is updated daily and linked to clinical outcomes and laboratory test results.”
__________________________________________________
IMO That in particular needs to be a priority here. We are not the Chinese Communists when it comes to reporting the truth.
The reporting of confirmed individual cases stateside has been too obscured. Compare it to the coverage of measles cases where the stories are much more specific in details for those who possibly came in contact with infectious persons.
The male clinic here has an a bowl award set up from the last Ebola outbreak and they have shut down any foreign patients there excepting no patience of this new a bola coronavirus
Are you using dictation to post?
A male clinic
an a bowl award
patients there excepting no patience
new bola coronavirus
???
yes is was
just talked to 2 chinese drs/....w family in china they say the gov. is lying ...over 100k dead in wuhan alone...country in chaos .....cannot exchange paper money....martial law..
just talked to 2 chinese drs/....w family in china they say the gov. is lying ...over 100k dead in wuhan alone...country in chaos .....cannot exchange paper money....martial law.
just talked to 2 chinese drs/....w family in china they say the gov. is lying ...over 100k dead in wuhan alone...country in chaos .....cannot exchange paper money....martial law.
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