Posted on 01/27/2020 8:04:17 PM PST by DannyTN
And more have died from one of the more common influenza strains. But that doesn’t feed the hysteria now does it?
It’s China. No credibility.
They even resorted to posting a FAKE photo of their new hospital. Of course, the internet quickly discovered they had used a photo that has been used many times before by people
Well, they have 15,000 fever cases a day at their hospitals in the area... are they returning patients?
Caveat Term “confirmed cases” is a nice mean to conceal the size of the problem
My impression is that yes, they are getting over it.
I’ve read 75% of the cases are not severe. The confirmed cases are probably almost all severe. The fatality rate still looks like about 3% of the confirmed cases. So probably a 0.75% fatality rate overall.
It’s still high. The flu fatality rate is 0.13%.
Compared to SARS, “Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries,[1] with the majority of cases in China mainland and Hong Kong[2] (9.6% fatality rate) according to the World Health Organization (WHO).”
SARS lasted 9 months. We’re already half way to the case count of SARS. But only 1/7th the fatality count.
But what’s concerning is the rate this illness has spread. It’s deadly but not as deadly as SARS, but it spreads faster. If it goes 9 months, at this rate, it will kill a lot more than SARS.
So about 1 in 45 die from it so far or about 2% of those who contract it.
Anyone who gets this coronavirus has a 2% chance of dying from it but a 98% chance of surviving - assuming no immune compromised systems.
The numbers above are the official government count. We are hearing a lot higher numbers through contacts in china and Hond Kong.
We don’t know yet due to the unknown/untrusted numbers of this new virus.
The number of infections the other day was 2,500 people. But you don’t put 50+ million people under quarantine because 2,500 people got “the flu”.
Last year in the usa an estimated 35 million people got the flu (about 10% of the total population). About 900,000 were bad enough to go to the hospital (and an official count as the flu). Most folks get the flu and stay home for a few days. About 90,000 people died of the flu.
So 10% of the people in the hospital died.
An estimated 0.25% of the total estimated number of people that got the flu died.
I imagine many people in China are recovering - rarely is something 100% deadly. The trouble, being China, we won’t know enough until it gets bad in other, more open countries.
Of course, even in “open” countries there will be attempts to minimize how bad something is.
LOL
So about 1 in 45 die from it so far or about 2% of those who contract it.
—
It may be too early to say how many are going to die from it. We don’t have enough history on it yet.
I am guessing some that have it haven’t had it long enough to know the outcome.
So this Coronavirus could make the flu look like a cold. It might not. The only histeria I see, is coming from the people in Wuhan, who are running out of food, and are scared.
Planning is appropriate. Monitoring is appropriate. Efforts to halt the spread are appropriate.
2-3% when the payoff is death, is not a bet I would like to take.
“Of course, even in “open” countries there will be attempts to minimize how bad something is.”
except where? .... you guessed it. Even before the US has it first death the MSM will be magnifying it and blaming Trump somehow.
If Hillary were President, the coronavirus epidemic would be a great reason to authorize five or ten million new "humanitarian" immigrants from China.
And how many millions of people live in China? I have a hard time getting upset about this one it’s just like SARS and Ebola: overblown panic that leads nowhere, thank God. I got upset with SARS and Ebola; in I was very worried. I learned my lesson. I predict it will be contained and will not spread very much. Although I’m certainly no epidemiologist.
I think that will happen. One way or another is that going to be the apocalyptic catastrophe that people are predicting.
Definitely. Vancouver is full of Chinese tourists.
Well I think we will know in a week.
There are a lot of people in China. Wuhan has been described as the size of London. And probably more densely packed.
If the people who flew with the confirmed cases start coming down sick this week, then we have a problem. Because that means they’ve been spreading it too.
And if they don’t come down sick, then this virus is going to fizzle out like SARS. It’s on a trajectory to vastly exceed the number of SARS cases, But if it fizzles, maybe the death count won’t be much higher than SARS.
Even if this fizzles, we shouldn’t become complacent. The next one could really be a killer. We need the CDC and the WHO taking hard actions to protect and slow from the spread of new deadly diseases.
In my opinion, they are doing better than in the past, but still not taking this seriously enough, and not putting in protective measures.
“Although I’m certainly no epidemiologist.”
Actual epidemiologists are very concerned.
100% false positive? That’s interesting I have noticed that was Tarzan Ebola I was 100% wrong this time I think I’m right. It’s not going to be a big deal. I don’t think so although again oh, I’m not an epidemiologist. I just got so panicked over SARS and Ebola that I kind of learned my lesson about this. The media feeds a panic, the Apocalypse is coming...
This is similar to Y2K. I was panicked about that too but nothing happened.
And some point you kind of lose energy for all this manufactured panic. I have a friend whose 90 she’s very concerned she’s worried her granddaughter will catch it. I said Pat she won’t catch it in no way believe me she’s going to be fine. She said wouldn’t you be worried if your children had it? I said well of course but neither one of them are going to get it.
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