We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18thJanuary 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories.
There is a time and a place for simulations and statistics. It may even be prudent here. But the wide variation in results almost render them useless. Further, lots of people are gripping on to any shred of 'evidence,' and, in this case, comingling it with math/data science/simulations and making adjustments, to derive 'Gospel Truth.' Just like global warming.
I've heard lots of people pushing R0 values, presumably based on the same type of analysis and adjustment in this study. The fact is...they're all opinion. Maybe they're informed opinion...but they aren't FACTS as we're being asked to believe.
Again, for the record...clearly something is going on. We should be vigilant and monitor what's happening. Maybe we should consider restricting entrance to the USA for certain individuals.
And sure, we can listen to 'experts' tell us what liberties we should surrender for 'protection,' just like we did with Ebola and SARS...you know...the last time we were all gonna die.
Some of us are beginning to think the lack of cessation of international travel from China to the US is DESIGNED to get us to a situation where we’ll lose our civil rights.
Death rate is not the R0 number. Which was the point of using that part of the quote.