Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread

Stat was.com ^ | Jan 26, 2020 | By HELEN BRANSWELL

[11th_VA]

Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities...

[11th_VA]

FYI

[11th_VA]

Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, suggested the estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.

“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be.

[ducttape45]

Sounds like they won't even try.

Are we looking at a prelude to a "Planet of the Apes" type infectious disease that'll wipe out 1/3 of the population?

[john316]

Think andromeda strain, may mutate itself out of existence.

[ifinnegan]

It’s interesting that its lesser pathogenicity makes it harder to contain.

From New England Journal of Medicine.

“A lack of severe disease manifestations affects our ability to contain the spread of the virus. Identification of chains of transmission and subsequent contact tracing are much more complicated if many infected people remain asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (assuming that these people are able to transmit the virus). More pathogenic viruses that transmit well between humans can generally be contained effectively through syndromic (fever) surveillance and contact tracing, as exemplified by SARS-CoV and, more recently, Ebola virus. Although containment of the ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is complicated by violent conflict, all previous outbreaks were contained through identification of cases and tracing of contacts, despite the virus’s efficient person-to-person transmission.”

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2000929?query=featured_home

[Georgia Girl 2]

We just got back from Aldis. There was a Chinese couple several spots ahead in line. The guy was coughing and sneezing. We ran back to the car and hit the hand sanitizer then drove home and took a shot of elderberry tincture and some colloidal silver. 😄

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

How do you take CS....and will I turn blue? 😜

[Cloverfarm]

Maybe it’s time to stock up on dog food and coffee. Essentials in case there’s a disruption to society.

[immadashell]

If you catch it does it turn you into a zombie?

[VanDeKoik]

“Are we looking at a prelude to a “Planet of the Apes” type infectious disease that’ll wipe out 1/3 of the population?”

No.

But it is more fun to scream and run around predicting all manner of doom because folks are bored.

[11th_VA]

Yeah, the thing about this virus is, you can be a ‘spreader’ before you even have symptoms - with SARS, only those with symptoms were spreaders.

[foundedonpurpose]

No. The current rate of death is around 2.7%. The people that are passing on have compromised immune system, elderly etc. Not that the media is going out of its way to report this information.

[Tareli]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/01/26/coronavirus-third-us-patient-diagnosed-california/4580804002/

The Los Angeles County Health Department said the infected person was receiving medical treatment.

The department stated, “There is no immediate threat to the general public, no special precautions are required, and people should not be excluded from activities based on their race, country of origin, or recent travel if they do not have symptoms of respiratory illness.”

[BenLurkin]

Pharma companies licking their lips.

[Candor7]

Worthy of note:

Farcesensitive wrote:

“George Soros owns WuXi Pharma Biotech, located at 666 Gaoxin Road East Lake High-tech Development Zone Wuhan 430075, China.

http://tinfoilcowboyhat.com/soroscos.htm

https://www.wuxiapptec.com/about/location
“

From:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3810647/posts?page=711#711

[bgill]

Horse and barn door.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[kingu]

First identified case: 01 DEC 2019.

Think about that; means exposure was sometime before 22 NOV 2019 and there has been 527 flights as week out of Wuhan International with an average of 275 people per flight. That’s 1.16 million possible vectors, many of which continued on another flight.

[bgill]

2.7% is nothing until it’s you.

[DownInFlames]

I think that’s the plan.