Posted on 01/24/2020 10:25:54 AM PST by fruser1
Link above to he latest situation report from WHO.
Note, “confirmed cases” is a subset of those who get infected. Not everyone runs to the doc for a case of the sniffles.
Based on populations and transmission rates the infected population is estimated around 4000. Confirmed cases near 600 with about 4% of those being fatal.
You’re advocating stupidity.
Change ypur pad and move on.
Take a math class.
How about I teach you one instead?
What’s the mortality rate if China is reporting 41 dead and 38 cured? How many does that leave Confirmed / Pending outcome?
What will the death toll be in approximately two weeks based on these inputs?
‘Nobody can leave’: Trapped Wuhan residents stock up
Asia
People in Wuhan are buying medical supplies in pharmacies where staff wear full body-suits, gloves
People in Wuhan are buying medical supplies in pharmacies where staff wear full body-suits, gloves and masks. (Photo: AFP/Hector RETAMAL)
25 Jan 2020 06:19PM
(Updated: 25 Jan 2020 07:13PM)
Bookmark:
WUHAN: Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken city on Saturday (Jan 25), as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Chinese New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.
Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others.
AFP saw a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20km east of the city centre on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around.
You need a course in logic too.
As you should be able to tell from the situation report, which was the topic of the thread, it indicates 17 dead for about 4000 cases.
This is due to the logistics associated with dealing with early reports. Unhospitalized cases would be considered flu until they got the bad news after testing one of the hospitalizations that it was something new.
So the epidemiology can only be estimated at this point and we’ll need a month or so of good data to see how bad this actually is.
Funny that you chose to engage me on the topic of math then, innit?
It’s a dynamic situation as any fool can see. I’ll assume that’s how you figured it out. I’m also quite well versed in statistics; well enough to know that fatalities vs. Confirmed Cases is meaningless with regard to determining mortality. The numbers are CASES, DEATHS, RECOVERIES.
People who are infected but have not died or recovered provide no data.
No you’re funny.
In post 10 you mistook the 4% applied to hospitalizations to the entire Chinese population - as if they were all destined for the hospital.
For now, yes.
Compared =/= mistook
You’re embarrassing yourself.
Hospitalization =/= infected.
The mistake you kept making.
Add English to your ever expanding curriculum.
You’re a very persistent troll.
If you want to debate the numbers, I’ll engage with you.
If you want to debate what you think i think, you can well sod off.
The transmission rate is not determined. Think: Schrodinger’s infected.
The persistence is yours. I gave numbers that provided the appropriate perspective via the original posted link yet you continued to run with the wrong ones.
“appropriate perspective”
I think I like you.
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