Six Things That Make a Brokered Democratic Convention More Likely

moneymaven.io ^ | December 23, 2019 | Mike "Mish" Shedlock

[Red Badger]

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The odds of a brokered convention are greater than most think.

Five Significant Changes

1> The superdelegates do not get to vote in the first round this year unless a candidate has a majority. Unlike 2016 when they all went to Hillary, this year they don’t vote until round 2 unless it is already decided.

2> California is now part of Super Tuesday. In 2016, the California primary was held on June 7. This year, the survivor bias bandwagon effect will be significantly reduced and possibly eliminated.

3> Following NH there will be two debates, and likely 4 candidates minimum at each. Currently there are six.

4> This will likely not be a two-way races headed into Super-Tuesday. Elizabeth Warren may have little overall chance, but she does have a chance of getting 15% in many states.

5> Progressive Split: Bernie Sanders are battling each other for the Progressives. Bernie will get most of this vote, but Warren will likely have have enough money to stay in until the end if she wants.

6> Bloomberg and Steyer may target a couple of states hard: Texas, Colorado perhaps? They may each pull 15% in a couple of them.

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1: Superdelegates

One of the rule changes since 2016 is that superdelegates (uncommitted) cannot vote in the first round unless there is already a clear majority.

Specifically

If a single candidate wins at least 2,268 pledged delegates: Superdelegates will be allowed to vote at first ballot, as their influence can not overturn the majority of pledged delegates.

If a single candidate wins 1,886–2,267 pledged delegates: Superdelegates will be barred from voting at first ballot, which solely will be decided by the will of pledged delegates.

If no candidate wins more than 1,885 pledged delegates: This will result in a contested convention, where superdelegates are barred from voting at the first formal ballot, but regain their right to vote for their preferred presidential nominee for all subsequent ballots needed until the delegates reach a majority.

In 2016 Sanders supporters howled, and correctly so, about superdelegate bias for Hillary.

This change alone increases the chances of a brokered convention.

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2: Super Tuesday Changes

Compared to 2016, California adds 495 delegates. North Carolina adds 122 delegates. Maine adds 32. And Georgia subtracts 120.

That is a net new 528 delegates that will have at least some survivor bandwagon bias removed.

By survivor bias, I mean increasing the tendency of people to vote for winners as the campaign progresses.

As noted above, the California primary in 2016 was held on June 7. This is a very significant change.

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3: Debate Schedule

Six are qualified for the next set of debates.

Billionaire Tom Steyer just qualified. He joins Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar.

There will be two Democratic debates following the New Hampshire primary. The rules will change then, but we do not yet know how.

Those 4-way to 6-way debates can easily take momentum from whoever wins Iowa and New Hampshire.

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4: Not a 2-Way Race

The DNC was hoping to narrow the field to two or three. Nope. This will not be a 2016 repeat of Hillary vs Bernie.

Warren is likely to get 15% in many states and might even win Massachusetts.

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5: Progressive Split

Bernie is a very strong favorite to beat Warren in the battle for the progressives.

But she has a dedicated following and might easily take 15% of the vote in many states.

Also Warren is good at fundraising. She will likely last to the end.

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6: Billionaires

Please note Tom Steyer's Surprise Surge in SC and NV.

Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg are both billionaires. They can self-finance to the end if so desired.

Steyer is highly unlikely to win any states let alone the nomination, but he could easily disrupt South Carolina enough so there is not much momentum for any candidate headed into Super Tuesday.

Bloomberg could conceivably win New York and do very well in Texas on Super Tuesday. By very well I mean 15% or better.

Importance of 15% Threshold

Note that 15% keeps popping up in my analysis.

I discussed why in What Are the Odds of No Winner in the Democratic Primaries?

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Let's recap.

Proportional Voting

Republicans have winner-take-all rules in some states but the Democrats generally have some sort of proportional allocation, typically with a 15% threshold.

In California, 35% of the votes are statewide, the rest by district.

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California Example

According to the California Democratic Party 2020 Delegate Selection Overview, the California Delegation will send a total of 495 delegates the Democratic National Convention comprised of 416 Pledged Delegates and 79 Unpledged Delegates.

Of the pledged delegates, 90 are at-large (statewide) delegates. Another 54 are pledged party leaders (mayors, legislators, state officials, etc.) committed to candidates who get at least 15% of the vote.

(90+54)/416 = 35%

Of the pledged delegates, 326 are allocated by district. The 15% rule comes into play, but at the district level.

Let's run the above math based on a hypothetical California poll that has Bernie at 24%, Warren at 21%, and Biden at 20%.

I am told the poll is real, but there is no reporting on it that I can find.

California Statewide Math

24 + 21 + 20 = 65 Sanders would get 24/65ths of the statewide delegates (37%) Warren would get 21/65ths of the statewide delegates (32%) Biden would get 20/65ths of the statewide delegates (31%) Sanders would get 33 statewide delegates. Warren would get 29 statewide delegates. Biden would get 28 statewide delegates.

Those are the statewide allocations.

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Pledged Delegate District Math

Sanders would get 24% minimum of 326 district delegates.

Warren would get 21% minimum of 326 district delegates.

Biden would get 20% minimum of 326 district delegates.

Those are approximations for two reasons.

Although there is a 15% minimum, that also applies at the district level. It's possible that Sanders, Warren, or Biden would not get 15% in every district.

It is also possible some candidates get 15% in some districts without hitting the 15% statewide threshold.

Consider the possibility Buttigieg got 15% in half the districts but only 11% statewide. In that case he would get about 7.5% of the 326 or 24 delegates.

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Super Tuesday

Someone is going to "win" but that someone may only have 35-45% of the delegates.

Would that be enough to cause winner bias to kick in?

I don't know. Nor does anyone else. But I doubt it.

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Projections

Project similar three-way splits across Texas, Illinois, Florida, and New York.

Guess what?

You have no overall winner and thus a "Brokered Convention" even if Bloomberg does not win New York or Warren win Massachusetts.

How Likely?

A brokered convention may seem unlikely, and probably is, but unlikely does not mean zero.

Should it come to a brokered convention, Warren's delegates would likely go to Bernie.

And expect massive howls if Bernie were to have more delegates in round one but lost to Biden when the superdelegates kicked in.

Some say it is too early to be discussing such things, but I would rather discuss this now and throw it away than be in a mad rush to figure everything out at the last minute on Super Tuesday.

Low odds does not mean no odds. I suspect the odds right now are at least 15% and perhaps way higher.

[eyeamok]

Of course it will be, none of the current candidates will be the nominee and have known this since the beginning, they are all dead men walking.

[ObozoMustGo2012]

So who will be?

[Red Badger]

Bernie’s Commie Bots can create a ‘wave’....................

[BobL]

They fail to note that the REASON for all of these changes is so that Skunk Cabbage can ride in on her white stallion and secure the nomination again for ‘revenge’.

...and it’s all playing out that way.

[aynrandfreak]

To the extent the Obama’s are pushing this, it makes sense why the Dems & media seem to keep making sure no one is too fully accepted.

[Red Badger]

H......I......Double L.....A.......Add an RY

Put them all together, they spell................

[Red Badger]

Hillary / Michelle 2020?.................

[FLT-bird]

So if they have a brokered convention they maybe get Mini Mike as a candidate? Great! Bring it on. Trump would utterly destroy him.

Nobody likes Mini Mike.

[Red Badger]

They are all running for Veep.................

[shelterguy]

Hillary will never be the candidate for any race ever again.

She spent 1.4 billion dollars and still lost a rigged election to a political nobody.

[Red Badger]

In the Democrat Universe, those are PLUSSES!.....................

[LIConFem]

”One of the rule changes since 2016 is that superdelegates (uncommitted) cannot vote in the first round unless there is already a clear majority.,bla bla bla...”

That’s a crock. Push come to shove, if Dem voters are going in the “wrong” direction, the Super Delegates will step in and choose their candidate for them. For their own good, of course...

[Mouton]

MB a dem candidate? Not in that cauldron of commies. It keeps looking like the POS from the past.

[jimfree]

Nice analysis and great political theater.

[Migraine]

Nice breakdown; a lot of thought went into laying out the nuts and bolts (mostly nuts) of the rules changes.

The convention will be brokered even before the convention, I think. Soros will buy off all but the one with whom he has a deal to be his puppet 100% of the time. It will not be a white male, though. Gabbard may be the one if she can keep moving left enough to avoid triggering the far-left gag reflex. They need a winner; she might be “it” by virtue of such a Soros-inspired process as I am suggesting.

It will be brokered for the simple reason that none of the current crop of humpty-dumpties on debate stages is even nominateable, much less electable.

[gasport]

The Florida Dem primary is March 17. It is a closed primary.

I can become a Dem for a Day and participate.

Right now, leaning toward being a BernieBot.

[Red Badger]

If there is a brokered convention, the result would be a fractured and divided Democrat party, possibly even a split into two separate parties, Communist and Commie-light.................

[MrEdd]

But Bernie Sanders is likely to have a majority, and the Democrats will take the nomination from him anyway.

Sanders will probably run either himself or put up a spoiler in his place. Perhaps Tulsi Gabbard.

Trump was always going to win.
The important part is who wins the civil war between leftist factions.

Throughput the Clinton years and even during the Bush years the Clintons preemptively scuttled the careers of the brighter and more capable up and coming Democrats to enlarge and preserve their dominance in the party.

Now the clown car is all they have left.

It’s too soon for the left to run a Bernie.
A portion of their opponents intend to make that overreach happen by voting Bernie Sanders in the primaries and Donald Trump in the General.

[SunkenCiv]

IMHO there will be no brokered convention. Cuckservatives will be disappointed that Tulsi will be long gone by then.

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1. The superdelegates wouldn't still exist if they didn't have a say. It doesn't matter what the rules are. The Demagogic Party is utterly and irreparably corrupt.

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2. California is Hollywood, IOW, celebutard money runs it (runs Virginia now as well, others, and more on the way). Kameltoe is out of the race, Booker suspended his campaign, Castro is out, Irish Bob is out, Steyer probably has a lot less support in Cali than he thinks. There's an ugly split among the entertainment industry nitwits (DeVito has endorsed the Bernout), and that has been made more stark with the "metoo-lite" smear on the always-reprehensible Bernie Sanders (the campaign for Psychojawea claims he told the Squaw two years ago that a woman couldn't win). Sanders also has his crosshairs on rich people who are richer than him, and he is older than most of Hollywood's grandparents, and excruciatingly white. Biden's a pedo, so a lot of the brain-dead left coasters will silently file into the voting booths and cast for Brainless Joe.

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3. The debates are nearly completely irrelevant to the process now.

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4. Warren may be hanging in after Super Tuesday, but it is likely to finish off her campaign.

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5. See previous entry.

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6. Bloomberg and Steyer will be a little less rich at the end of their campaigns, which will be effectively over by the convention. Since they're really in the race to stir up trouble, and don't need to worry about money, neither one drop out. I think Yang and Schultz will, but no one will be able to tell the difference with them.

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Number seven, even if Sanders is still alive by the convention, Biden will already have an insurmountable lead, much bigger than the one Ford had over Reagan in 1976.