Posted on 01/04/2020 9:52:32 AM PST by yesthatjallen
Despite its three summer heatwaves 2019 was only the fourth warmest year since records began in 1833. The average temperature at the KMI’s Ukkel (Brussels) weather centre in 2019 was 11.5°C.
The warmest year since records began is shared between 2014 and 2018. Then the average temperature was 11.9°C. The third warmest year on record was 2011 in which the average temperature at the Ukkel Weather Centre 11.6°C. 2019 had the same annual average temperature as 2007.
There were a lot of hours of sunlight in 2019. The sun shone for a total of 1,757 and 30 minutes. This is 200 hours more than in an average. 2019 was the 5th sunniest year on record.
Rainfall was pretty much average with a total of 798.6mm of rain falling over 182 days.
December was a relatively warm month with average temperatures of 5.9°C.
(Excerpt) Read more at vrt.be ...
Man's CO2 has caused the rise from 280 ppm to 412 ppm. There's essentially zero chance that the rise has a natural cause. Past warming can cause presernt CO2 rise with a 500-1000 year lag: http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming-2/ice-core-graph/ but there's only about 10 ppm rise for each 1C rise. For the rise from 280 to 412 to be natural, there would have to have been a 13C rise in temperature in past centuries to millennia. That did not happen.
No doubt some of the CO2 rise is natural since there has been some natural warming following the Little Ice Age. A best guess would be 5 or 10 ppm. The rest of the rise, well over 100 ppm, requires another explanation. Volcanoes do not show a sudden uptick in the past century or two, although there could be more and that could explain part of the rise. But a large volcano, Pinatubo, released 40 Mt of CO2. That's about 1/2 of a day of manmade CO2.
Finally, part of the explanation is land use changes, and possibly also ocean algae changes. With less tree cover, CO2 will rise, and we have chopped down a lot of forests globally.
Man's CO2 has caused the rise from 280 ppm to 412 ppm. There's essentially zero chance that the rise has a natural cause. Past warming can cause presernt CO2 rise with a 500-1000 year lag: http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming-2/ice-core-graph/ but there's only about 10 ppm rise for each 1C rise. For the rise from 280 to 412 to be natural, there would have to have been a 13C rise in temperature in past centuries to millennia. That did not happen.
No doubt some of the CO2 rise is natural since there has been some natural warming following the Little Ice Age. A best guess would be 5 or 10 ppm. The rest of the rise, well over 100 ppm, requires another explanation. Volcanoes do not show a sudden uptick in the past century or two, although there could be more and that could explain part of the rise. But a large volcano, Pinatubo, released 40 Mt of CO2. That's about 1/2 of a day of manmade CO2.
Finally, part of the explanation is land use changes, and possibly also ocean algae changes. With less tree cover, CO2 will rise, and we have chopped down a lot of forests globally.
Now you can argue that solar has a much broader influence than just solar radiation. In fact the sun controls the weather, including the 600 TW hurricanes. There is 40,000 TW of latent heat transfer (rising water vapor) that is entirely controlled by the sun. If the sun varies, that amount varies.
[[Man’s CO2 has caused the rise from 280 ppm to 412 ppm.]]
Sorry- We’ve been over and over this- there is no proof of that- It has been legitimately suggested that oceans turning over caused the rise of CO2 in the past well beyond 1000 ppm
Scientists trace atmospheric rise in CO2 during deglaciation to deep Pacific Ocean
CORVALLIS, Ore. – Long before humans started injecting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal, the level of atmospheric CO2rose significantly as the Earth came out of its last ice age. Many scientists have long suspected that the source of that carbon was from the deep sea.
But researchers haven’t been able to document just how the carbon made it out of the ocean and into the atmosphere. It has remained one of the most important mysteries of science.
A new study, published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, provides some of the most compelling evidence for how it happened – a “flushing” of the deep Pacific Ocean caused by the acceleration of water circulation patterns that begin around Antarctica.
The concern, researchers say, is that it could happen again, potentially magnifying and accelerating human-caused climate change.
“The Pacific Ocean is big and you can store a lot of stuff down there – it’s kind of like Grandma’s root cellar – stuff accumulates there and sometimes doesn’t get cleaned out,” said Alan Mix, an Oregon State University oceanographer and co-author on the study. “We’ve known that CO2 in the atmosphere went up and down in the past, we know that it was part of big climate changes, and we thought it came out of the deep ocean.
“But it has not been clear how the carbon actually got out of the ocean to cause the CO2 rise.”
Lead author Jianghui Du, a doctoral student in oceanography at Oregon State, said there is a circulation pattern in the Pacific that begins with water around Antarctica sinking and moving northward at great depth a few miles below the surface. It continues all the way to Alaska, where it rises, turns back southward, and flows back to Antarctica where it mixes back up to the sea surface.
It takes a long time for the water’s round trip journey in the abyss – almost 1,000 years, Du said. Along with the rest of the OSU team, Du found that flow slowed down during glacial maximums but sped up during deglaciation, as the Earth warmed. This faster flow flushed the carbon from the deep Pacific Ocean – “cleaning out Grandma’s root cellar” – and brought the CO2 to the surface near Antarctica. There it was released into the atmosphere.
“It happened roughly in two steps during the last deglaciation – an initial phase from 18,000 to 15,000 years ago, when CO2 rose by about 50 parts per million, and a second pulse later added another 30 parts per million,” Du said.
That total is just a bit less than the amount CO2 has risen since the industrial revolution. So the ocean can be a powerful source of carbon.
[[For the rise from 280 to 412 to be natural, there would have to have been a 13C rise in temperature in past centuries to millennia.]]
Nope- not true- see my post above
It can. But 80 ppm rise they are talking about has a known cause: about 8C of ocean warming from the depths of glacial to the present interglacial. The current rise from 280 to 412 (and rising 2-3 ppm each year) cannot be explained by a proportional temperature increase.
Someone remind me again of what the meltypoint of ice is?
[[There’s essentially zero chance that the rise has a natural cause.]]
Really? Near Zero?
“Termites produce more CO2 each year than all living things combined
It is estimated that for every human on Earth there may be 1000 pounds of termites.
• Scientists have calculated that termites alone produce ten times as much carbon dioxide as all the fossil fuels burned in the whole world in a year.
https://www.iceagenow.info/termites-produce-co2-year-living-combined/
That’s JUST for termites- there are many many more areas that are being discovered that produce way more CO2 than we knew about-
To say there is essentially zero chance that the rise isn’t due to man is not scientific- We are discovering many ways i which the rise could very well be due to nature-
Woo hoo! Bigger, juicier tomatoes!
[[The current rise from 280 to 412 (and rising 2-3 ppm each year) cannot be explained by a proportional temperature increase. ]]
Precisely, which is why I posted that article about the oceanic turnover- or whatever term they give it- no warming needed- CO2 gets expelled naturally, without warming-
"It also takes a tremendous amount of energy to raise the oceans even 1c "The ocean contains a colossal 1,500,000,000,000,000,000,000 litres of water! To heat it, even by a small amount, takes a staggering amount of energy. To heat it by a mere 1˚C, for example, an astonishing 6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules of energy are required."
Well, unfortunately for every ton of water there is only a kilogram of air. Taking into account the relative heat capacities and absolute masses, we arrive at the astonishing figure of 4,000˚C."
https://principia-scientific.org/chemistry-expert-carbon-dioxide-cant-cause-global-warming/
Termites are a possibility, but requires an explanation of why termites increased their activity to match the CO2 increase, particularly since 1950. Other soil organisms create CO2 too, but the same question applies: why now?
Still requires the same explanation, why now?
[[Termites are a possibility, but requires an explanation of why termites increased their activity to match the CO2]]
They didn’t increase activity, they increased in numbers- likely due to warming and changing topography- We came out of ice ages, when termites likely didn’t survive well, and were isolated to smaller areas- to where the earth became warm, they expanded, and multiplied- now they are practically everywhere- and creating many tons of CO2
Of course that got offset SLIGHTLY be us wiping out bison, who roamed in the millions- but that was just local-
there’s so much we don’t know- so many variables- warming earth meant warm weather animals and insects bred and increased, while cold weather animals got smaller and had to adjust, or died out- smaller animals, meant less CO2 per that group- larger more abundant insects meant more CO2,- More warming meant more plants (unless it got too warm thus killing off plants), which means soil organisms = more decay- more CO2- ice age there wasn’t as much decay, fewer soil organisms- etc
So many variables-
[[I have not seen an ocean turnover explanation for CO2 (without warming).]]
“a “flushing” of the deep Pacific Ocean caused by the acceleration of water circulation patterns that begin around Antarctica.”
“Du found that flow slowed down during glacial maximums but sped up during deglaciation, as the Earth warmed. This faster flow flushed the carbon from the deep Pacific Ocean – “cleaning out Grandma’s root cellar” – and brought the CO2 to the surface near Antarctica. There it was released into the atmosphere.”
Flushing doesn’t occur due to warming- but rather is due to water flow forcing deep water CO2 upwards and out
Two thirds of the planet is ocean so 2/3 of the 80,000 TW of solar is warming the oceans all the time.
6,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules
That amount of energy would take 3.5 years. Yes it takes a tremendous amount of energy to warm the ocean 1C. But in fact the sun hits the oceans with a lot of energy.
[[I have not seen an ocean turnover explanation for CO2 (without warming).]]
More explanation- think of it kinda like ‘heavy water’ pushing ‘lighter water on the bottom upward’ (Not that the water is heavier- though it might be- I’m not familiar with whether colder water is heavier or not?, but the principle is that the water from antarctic would flow low and deep, pushing the water that was there higher and CO2 higher up and out-
“Lead author Jianghui Du, a doctoral student in oceanography at Oregon State, said there is a circulation pattern in the Pacific that begins with water around Antarctica sinking and moving northward at great depth a few miles below the surface. It continues all the way to Alaska, where it rises, turns back southward, and flows back to Antarctica where it mixes back up to the sea surface.”
Same link as above- you might wanna add that site’s info to your profile page- handy info to have- it’s just one of the best arguments FOR natural causes I think
[[But in fact the sun hits the oceans with a lot of energy.]]
Not that much it doesn’t- and remember, during that 3.5 years- the warmed water gets radiated up and out- heat rises- so the water cools again- There isn’t enough energy KEEPING oceans hot enough to be causing the rise of oceanic CO2- (IF there were- life on earth would cease- it couldn’t stand that kind of heat) some other process must be taking place-
[[Yes it takes a tremendous amount of energy to warm the ocean 1C. ]]
And let’s not forget, as you mentioned, it would take more than 8C temp rise to release the amount of CO2 to = the increase we’ve seen in the past century IF that were the mechanism AND source for the the rise, but like mentioned, that is not the only way CO2 gets pumped out of ocean into atmosphere- flushing is also a very real possibility-
We live by a lake, and 2 times a year or so, it ‘turns over’- everything gets stirred up when it happens as the deep water debris gets stirred up- This i believe is what can also be called ‘flushing’ although the water doesn’t get replaced, or pushed out, to another part of say another lake, like what happens in the ocean- the lake just gets stirred up ,and bottom water gets pushed up to surface- so it’s similar, but not identical to what flushing does to the ocean
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