Posted on 01/01/2020 11:27:16 AM PST by FlipWilson
A new study from the Federal Reserve found that President Trump’s tariffs are backfiring.
According to the Fed study, the tariffs that went into effect in 2018 have led to not only higher producer prices but also a loss of jobs across the U.S. — particularly in manufacturing. . .
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Here is form your own link. the very first para of the article.
“and the overall economy grew for the 127th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.”
So, whats with it? You expect a huge downturn in economic growth or what?
Yes there will be contractions in manufacturing since they are entering the winter months. Besides that, inventory is full to cover whatever unexpected increase in orders over those winter months. So what do the manufacturers do? They slow up.
You know...like road reconstruction retracts in the winter months for example. Housing slows, etc.
Well, any of it that was true was racist and xenophobic. Cause you know, anything good about Orange Man would vindicate his policies, which would lead to reduced dependency, which is bad, cause big goobermint is the only good. Or something.
Trump's presidency has been a GOLD MINE for us--so far. I imagine that things will just get BETTER and BETTER.
So now that a deal is being struck with China, manufacturing will soar just in time for the 2020 election
Win win
Amen!
so she doesn’t factor in the leverage gained to secure an improved trade deal? hmmmm......
>>>Yes there will be contractions in manufacturing since they are entering the winter months. Besides that, inventory is full to cover whatever unexpected increase in orders over those winter months. So what do the manufacturers do? They slow up.
The data series is seasonally adjusted to take those factors into account.
>>>You expect a huge downturn in economic growth or what?
No, the Consumer is doing fine. I just expect manufacturing to remain weak as a result of slowing oil and gas drilling activity and continued uncertainty around tariffs that is slowing CAPEX.
There was a lying chick at the Boston Fed that came up with deeply flawed study of racism in home lending. That was during Clinton, and Il Duce IIs (A. Cuomo) tenure at the increasing corrupt HUD.
That culminated in what became Bush43’s end-of-2nd term financial crisis.
One problem with tariffs: they don’t tackle THE SOURCE of our underlying economic problems that made industry leave our shores to begin with - the source being the ECONOMIC INTERFERENCE BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT stifling economic growth and competitiveness including
- HIGH TAXES,
- unconstitutional dead-end REGULATIONS,
- unconstitutional business-and-job-killing FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE,
- UNCONSTITUTIONALLY FEDERALLY PROTECTED UNIONS
- engaged in basically unconstitutional SUBSIDES (BRIBES) FOR SPECIAL INTERESTS.
- stupidly DESTABILIZING & DEVALUING THE DOLLAR.
Trump has done a lot to deal with those underlying problems caused by the feds. Tariffs isn’t one of them. Tariffs are more federal economic interference and more taxes on the America consumer. Not good.
Please try to limit your contrary responses to reasonable refutations of my rationale.
and they said Buh Bye
Where did you hear that? I’m reading 2.1% or 2.2%.
Exactly right. PMI is a lagging indicator because it only shows a snapshot of “today”. A leading indicator such as Factory Capacity Utilization is a better predictor of economic growth because manufacturing companies do no invest in new plant and equipment or hire more workers when they are sitting on lots of idle capacity.
Manufacturing capacity utilization is nearing 80%, compared to a low of 63% i the Obamanation. With the market and money supply as it is and with the tarrifs increasing demand for US-made goods, there is no indication of a slowdown, and in fact there will be continued growth.
Remember the old expression, “lies, damned lies, and statistics”!
“Trump’s Tariffs Harming Economy, Study Finds”
Yeah, China’s economy. Big time.
The US can take the hurt for a lot longer than China can, as the output in this country ramps back up to fill the gaps that China had been providing at cut rates. Awkward for a while, but the long-term effects far outweigh the short-term displacement.
This is hardly surprising if true. Trump is no fan of tariffs. He is using them as a hopefully temporary measure to extract concessions from China and our other trading partners.
Yes tariffs hurt. But so do huge trade imbalances. Get rid of the trade imbalances with better deals and Trump will drop his tariffs like a hot rock.
Right now Trump should stay the course. The payoff will be there in the end.
Under Trump, over 1 trillion dollars have been repatriated to the US from foreign accounts. In China just the opposite is happening, they are bleeding cash, and have been unable to stop much of it. People with money are finding ways to get it out of the country and the CCP is putting more pressure on Xi by forcing the addition of new finance ministers for each province and again cutting the bank cash reserve requirements. After 8 reserve cuts since 2018 the PBOC just yesterday again cut reserves to 12.5% freeing up 115 billion dollars to try to prop up the economy.
Remember there really aren’t free market forces in China, the capitalist experiment is still managed by the CCP, and it is struggling bigly.
Roaring Twenties! Roaring Twenties!
>>>A leading indicator such as Factory Capacity Utilization is a better predictor of economic growth
Since you cite it as a leading indicator, what are the implications of the decline in capacity utilization that has taken place since December 2018?
Https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MCUMFN
I listen to the Market people “LIVE” and they say you’re full of cr**.
You only think you have a new job or a pay raise. That’s a delusion caused by legalized pot smoking. Really, you’re selling your belongings and haven’t eaten in three days.
You mean, NY Times columnists?
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