No
Pollsters have started oversampling blacks for this very reason.
What they find is 20-30% support especially among men.
A recent rally in Dallas bore this out with incredible perentages of blacks and democrats waiting in line for hours to get into the rally.
Sorry but just not true. 20-30% among black men, 4% among black women in OVERLY SMALL SAMPLE SIZES... do not equate to a 20 or 30% support..
I’ve run the numbers folks, if you think Trump is going to get 20% black support in the 2020 election you are deluding yourselves.
I have ever confidence Trump will get a better percentage in 20 than 16, but the idea that he’s going to get 20 to 30% of the black vote is just self delusion.
Trump Outperformed Romney with both blacks and hispanics in 2016... and that was with 8% of the black vote and 28% of the hispanic vote.
He will improve on those numbers, but believe me he’s not getting 20% of the black vote nationally...
When you show me a national poll of 600+ black likely voters, that shows you a 20% or more support for Trump then you have something to talk about... anything smaller than that... and you are fooling yourselves.
There are about 40,000,000 blacks in this country, to get a poll with a margin of error of +/- 3% you need to poll at least 600 people with a good random distribution to get a 95% confidence level.
Until you see a poll like that published... You are seeing nothing more than people jumping to conclusions who do not understand polling, statistics or mathematics.
For Trump get 20% black support, would be a tidal wave... you wouldn’t need a poll to see it.
Trump got 11% support from blacks in TX in2016.. 3 points above where he wound up nationally.
TX overall is little under 12% AA, and DALLAS is about 24% AA... With 11% support, even with no movement from 2016, One would expect a good turnout in Dallas to see Trump.
Folks really need to get better acquainted with mathematics before they make ridiculous claims.
Trump will and should do better with AA’s than he did in 16, but he’s not going to pull 20%... not even close. He will likely be on the higher end of a typical GOP candidate, 10-12%... but he’s not going to get 20% of the black vote.. folks are deluding themselves that think that way.