[mrsmith]

Cyprus… good point!
Turkey has ‘played’ Europe over and over. Bet it affects their planning here.

Lot more anti-Turk forces here, though.
Though Assad wants the Kurds cleared for refugees in mostly the same places Turkey does.

But it’s Idlib that matters to everyone.
A quarter million Kurds displaced for refugees is, I’m sorry to say, not a big deal in the big picture.

[Zhang Fei]

[Lot more anti-Turk forces here, though.
Though Assad wants the Kurds cleared for refugees in mostly the same places Turkey does.]

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Putin is taking flak for the minimal casualties Russia has incurred in Ukraine. He’s not about to take on the Turks. Given that Russia can’t use its nukes against the Turks, any conflict with large-scale Russian involvement would be an extended war of attrition involving thousands of Russian dead. The Russians aren’t gonna fight the Turks - they’re probably on about the same level, equipment- and proficiency-wise. Maybe if there was any prospect of Syria becoming a de jure Russian oblast. Whereas Turkish gains will probably become de jure Turkish territory in time, the way Turkey grabbed Hatay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatay_State#Background

From an American interest perspective, the issue isn’t so much letting the Syrian Kurds be overrun as a chance at establishing a friendly Middle Eastern state with a path to the sea out of Syrian Kurdistan. One thing’s for sure - this historic opportunity is now purely in the rear view mirror.