Given the Libertarian in the race, it’s unlikely it will be 53-46%, especially if he gets at or above 5%. But let’s hope he gets that 53% and Baby Beshear gets the leftovers.
I was giving the Libertarian 1%.
It just seems Beshear is trending down more than Bevin is trending up as more ads run pointing out how far to the left Beshear is - more people are deciding they aren’t going to vote for Beshear but haven’t yet decided they are voting for Bevin. 46% may be Beshear’s peak. If they further exploit Beshear’s NARAL endorsement especially in the rural areas he may be further damaged.
By the way I saw this ad running: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2-if5kwPCU
RAGA is the group behind that...apparently they are spending millions on the race. Last time around they abandoned the race in the last 2 weeks of the campaign thinking it was a lost cause. When Beshear won by a fraction of a percent it was clear that was a mistake. Grimes also barely won and her opponent got no help whatsoever - if he had that result probably would have been different as well.