I was giving the Libertarian 1%.
It just seems Beshear is trending down more than Bevin is trending up as more ads run pointing out how far to the left Beshear is - more people are deciding they aren’t going to vote for Beshear but haven’t yet decided they are voting for Bevin. 46% may be Beshear’s peak. If they further exploit Beshear’s NARAL endorsement especially in the rural areas he may be further damaged.
Libertarians are notorious for taking the percentage needed for the Republican to win. I was surprised to see Hicks is the first known Libertarian to be on the Guv ballot as one (not counting the eccentric Gatewood Galbraith, who got as high as 15% in that pathetically absurd 1999 Guv race as a member of Perot’s “Reform” Party). But it’s not out there to think Hicks could get 5%.
As the election is weeks away, people start to focus more on the race. Beshear “barely” won the AG race in ‘15 (some say he didn’t), and I just don’t see him exciting the voters.