On Verge of Brexit Deal, Though Approval in U.K. Is Not Assured

The New York Times ^ | 16 October 2019 | Mark Lander, Stephen Castle

[Cronos]

Hopes for a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union have surged in recent days, but the positive mood music from diplomats masks a harder reality for Mr. Johnson: He may be forced into concessions that make his deal impossible to sell at home.

Boris is frantically trying to bridge a gap over the thorny issue of how to treat NI in a post-Brexit Europe in time for a crucial summit meeting of the European Union later this week.

The down-to-the-wire talks between diplomats began on Tuesday morning, with some officials predicting that the two sides would never close the divide. As the day wore on, however, the negotiators seemed to draw closer, and news of a potential deal trickled into the financial markets, where traders drove up the pound.

...But even if he produces an 11th-hour success, analysts said, Johnson could face a familiar conundrum in London: If he gives too much ground to Brussels on the Northern Ireland border, he will not be able to win backing for the agreement from key elements of his coalition in Parliament.

“There is a robust trade-off here. Technically, the deal can be done, but can the politics deliver?”

Rory Stewart, a former cabinet minister and one of 21 lawmakers purged from the Conservative Party by Mr. Johnson over Brexit policy, was more pessimistic. “I don’t think he’ll get anything,” he said.

On the off chance that he succeeds, Mr. Stewart said, “the deal that he will get will be significantly worse than the withdrawal agreement,” referring to the treaty negotiated by Mrs. May. That would leave Britain facing an economic hit and could dissuade lawmakers from supporting any new agreement.

[Cronos]

The Boris deal (Mary deal redux with the UK-backstop replaced by the Northern Ireland only backstop) looks like a parliamentary winner:

1. Most Tories including the ERG will support it as it takes the UK out of the EU and keeps NI as part of the union but roughly in the EU customs union. They will portray it as a great victory "We delivered Brexit" and hope to win the polls.

2. Most centrist Labour and maybe even Corbynites would support this and portray it as great collaboration in "giving the people what they want but minimizing damage" and hope to retain their seats from surges from Libdems and Tories

3. LibDems will vote against it - they are against any kind of Brexit.

4. SNP will most likely abstain - if they get assurances for an Indyref2

5. the DUP will either vote against or might be (25% chance) persuaded to abstain

The Boris deal (May Deal 2.0) should squeeze through parliament based on the above

[Berlin_Freeper]

How does Mr Farage like this?

[Cronos]

WWND? What would Nigey do?

[Cronos]

The level of rancor on BOTH sides is horrendous

look at what Leave.EU created

image from the Pro-LEAVE "Sun"

[Erik Latranyi]

3 years of negotiating and it is all about a few days in a mad rush.

So STUPID and IRRESPONSIBLE on behalf of elected officials!!!

But they do this every time.....do nothing and then madly rush to create a deal in the last moment.

Just crash out of the socialist EU and then tell them how it is going to be. If they don’t like it, then they can pay for border control in Ireland.

Time to get nasty.

[oincobx]

>>>How does Mr Farage like this?

I don’t think he likes the deal. He is calling for a delay because that helps him politically. He wants the delay so an election can be held, which would likely benefit his Brexit party. If Brexit occurs, the Brexit party loses it raison d’etre and folks vote for the Tories if there is an election.

[FLT-bird]

Exactly. Boris should demand the EU agree to reasonable terms. When they refuse,.....oh well. “I tried”. Then the deadline expires and it’s a clean break Brexit.