Posted on 10/12/2019 5:55:16 PM PDT by Hojczyk
I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down.
In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53% approval among likely voters as of September 24, a number that if maintained suggests a clear path to re-election. The coupling of the words “Trump” and “impeachment” in newspaper headlines–the real purpose of the Democrats’ impeachment drive–drove Trump’s approval numbers in the same survey all the way down to 45% on October 8, against 52% disapproval.
Since then, Trump’s numbers have been climbing back up, presumably as more voters become aware of how silly the Democrats’ grounds for impeachment are. As of yesterday, Trump had made up half of his decline over the prior two weeks, with 49% approval against 50% disapproval. My guess is that he will continue to rise until the Democrats come up with their next stratagem to generate negative headlines.
The Rasmussen survey is valuable, by the way, for several reasons. It is the only daily presidential approval poll, based on a rolling three-day average. It also samples only likely voters, unlike virtually every other poll conducted outside the later stages of an election campaign. Whether Rasmussen’s numbers are accurate as a predictor depends on whether the likely voter model holds up. But regardless of whether the numbers are high, low, or exactly right, Rasmussen’s unique status as a rolling daily poll makes it an important indicator of trends. At the moment, things are trending the president’s way.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Good news.
But “likely voters” leaves a lot of room for play.
“...My guess is that he will continue to rise until the Democrats come up with their next stratagem to generate negative headlines....”
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....or they gin up the next rigged, phony poll!
President Trump does not bounce.
“Don’t call it a comeback!”
“only likely voters,”
Critical and important info.
They don’t sample a bunch of illegal aliens, who can’t quite vote yet.
It is early, people will wake up when it is time.
“...They don’t sample a bunch of illegal aliens, who can’t quite vote yet...”
Don’t bet on that...The leftist a$$holes will definitely try to find a way for them to vote...
PDJT is going to beat the Dems like a drum in Nov. 2020.
All the media’s Horses and all the media’s Men can’t put Demty Dumpty together again.
It would not surprise me in the least to hear one of these leftist judges in California say “I declare these people (illegals) legal...Give them ballots!”
They need a video of him killing puppy. Nothing else will work.
I meant that Rasmussen poll doesn’t sample illegal aliens, the article said they only sample voters.
I am not sure what the other pollster do, I can believe that they do sample illegal aliens, that is how they got hight anti-Trump numbers.
He was at 53% approval among likely voters as of September 24, a number that if maintained suggests a clear path to re-election.
I pray you are right.
Gotcha...Rasmussen is probably the closest to being accurate...
IINM, the numbers released on Friday Oct 11 by Rasmussen would have been sampled prior to the 2 rallies. Next release is Monday Oct 14 =>
I remember the pollsters claiming that Reagan’s re-election was “ too close to call” , we all knew how that turned out.
Here’s what I still have trouble grasping—why does ANYONE with a functioning brain take the Democrats seriously (on an intellectual level) when they accuse the President of wrongdoing? Why can’t people learn from even the most recent past? After the collapse of the Russian Collusion Hoax, everyone should be gun-shy about buying whatever comes out of the Beltway Donkeys. But no—the undying hatred of The Donald by Progressives and idiot Never Trump Republicans allows them to be snookered again and again.
If I’m not mistaken Rasmussen is robo poll, so there is no judgmental pollster at the other end.
Personally speaking I don’t talk to pollsters but I will do a robo poll.
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