I concur with most of what you posted.
I continue to believe that the final outcome will be a new nation of Kurds and Suni moslems to the north and east of the river. It will not include the agressive Turkish Kurds. It will include territory that was once IraQ and Syria
By slicing through Al Anbar Province (Sunni), this new nation would link with Jordan. Perhaps some arrangement could be made to allow Iran and Shia Iraq a conduit to the Mediterranean in return for a peace settlement. As Trump says, think big.