Not buying it. Even so, most of the 10 you give her are big vote states. I'm guessing she's around 200 right there. Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina scare me, could go either way. Another 100 votes there.
And, in the not-as-reliable-as-we-think category, you have Ohio and (shudder!) Texas. Trump is going to need to be sure with these two and take at least 3 of the 5 "scary" states to prevail.
Can he do it? At this point, I'm about 65% confident. Hopefully, the "peach fo-ti-fi" movement will blow up in the Dems face, but with their cheerleaders in the press, I'm not holding my breath.
Black men couldn’t stand Hillary and black women were just slightly less put off by her. A screeching white Yankee is a turnout problem as 2016 demonstrated and it’s probable that Latinos will also take a dim view of a schoolmarm in her flats and cardigans.
/s
“Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina scare me,”
If those states scare you you honestly have no clue exactly how and why Trump won in 16.
Trump will take every state he took in 16, and by a larger margin.
He will take most of not all states he got more than 45% in 16 but lost.
And Trump will take the fight to states he got between 40 and 45 points in in 16 and don’t be shocked if he manages to take a few of them as well.
There is ZERO path for thr Dems in the 2020 cycle.. you need to stop watching g cable news and talk radio.
The reality is Trump will grossly over perform his 16 numbers. The fact you don’t see it tells me you don’t understand exactly how and why Trump won in 16... which honestly isn’t surprising because most of thr pundits and media on both sides of the aisle still don’t understand what happened in 16z