Posted on 09/16/2019 5:38:47 AM PDT by Cronos
A NEW POLL has shown just over half of people in Northern Ireland would vote for Irish unification if there were a border poll tomorrow.
The poll, published by Lord Ashcroft, shows that 45% of those surveyed said they would vote to stay in the UK, while 46% said they would choose to leave and join the Republic of Ireland.
This breaks down to 51% to 49% for unification when don’t knows and those who say they would not vote are excluded.
“This is in fact a statistical tie, and well within the margin of error,” Lord Ashcroft said in his analysis of the results.
“Such a result might also reflect the uncertainty and anxiety surrounding Brexit, the Irish border and its potential effect on life in the province, which could recede when the outcome is settled,” he said.
“Be that as it may, the result underlines what could be at stake in the quest for a workable Brexit solution on the island of Ireland.”
Lord Ashcroft is a businessman and politician. Since the 2010 election, he has conducted independent public polls relating to British political opinions.
1,542 adults in Northern Ireland were interviewed online between 30 August and 2 September for his latest poll on Irish unification.
Source: Lord Ashcroft/Twitter
One in 20 self-declared Unionists said they would opt for unification and a further 6% said they didn’t know how they would vote.
Women (13%) were more likely than men (3%) to say they were not sure how they would vote.
The over-65 age group was the only one with a clear majority for remaining in the Union (62% to 38% when excluding don’t knows and those who wouldn’t vote).
Border poll tomorrow
A majority of those surveyed (59%) think that if there were a referendum tomorrow, Northern Ireland would chose to remain part of the UK.
However, when asked what the outcome would be in 10 years’ time, the results were reversed. Most believed (54%) that the vote would be in favour of unification, with just three in 10 people believing voters would choose to remain in the UK.
The results show that Unionists are considerably less confident about the chances of winning a vote in 10 years’ time. However, 87% of Unionists believe Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK if a border poll were held tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Nationalists are more confident. While just over half (53%) think Northern Ireland would vote for unification tomorrow, 93% believe this would be the case in 10 years’ time.
Source: Lord Ashcroft/Twitter
More than half of voters in Northern Ireland (51%) thinks that Brexit makes Irish unification in the foreseeable future much more likely to happen. Just 9% of people said Brexit makes it a much less likely outcome.
A total of 51% of those surveyed in Northern Ireland said they would like to see the UK remain in the EU.
There have been a number of other polls conducted on the topic of Irish unification in recent months.
A Red C poll in May showed increase in the number of people who believe a united Ireland is more likely because of Brexit.
The survey, commissioned by pro-EU group European Movement (EM) Ireland, found that 50% of those polled said it was more likely – up 6% on the 44% of people polled in March 2018.
In a poll for Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research in January, 44% of Irish people said they felt a referendum on a united Ireland should be held.
Political opinions
In July, the Mayor of Belfast, Sinn Féin’s John Finucane, said the Irish government must lead the way in making plans and preparations for Irish unification.
Speaking to the MacGill Summer School on 23 July, Finucane said the debate about Irish unity does not just belong to Sinn Féin, but to everyone on the island.
He called on the Irish government to set up a unit within government to begin preparations for the possibility of Irish unity, highlighting that the Scottish government has done so.
The Belfast mayor also called for an Oireachtas committee on Irish unity to be established. He also called on the Taoiseach to “appoint an Minister of State with the dedicated and specific responsibility of developing strategies to advance Irish unity and coordinating the Government’s all-Ireland policies”.
The previous weekend, Ireland’s Ambassador to the UK said a poll on a united Ireland would “degrade” attempts to resolve the ongoing impasse over Britain’s departure from the EU.
Adrian O’Neill told BBC Radio 4′s The Week in Westminster programme that the current priority for the Irish government was to restore the Northern Ireland Executive at Stormont.
Last year, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said a no-deal Brexit would bring the timeline for a border poll on a united Ireland forward.
With reporting by Christina Finn
Ahh, Brexit, is there anything it can’t do?
Or maybe they dont want to become Belfastistan?
51% to 49% for reunification sounds like Ireland would be right back at war with themselves again. I’m guessing the IRA/Sein Finn/whatever they call themselves now...still have quite a few weapons.
Yes, 51% is not the percentage to make a decision to leave a union - it should be closer to 2/3rds
Did you see the Brexit percentages?
We Taigs have finnaly outbred the orangemen
I don’t think it is as simple as that.
Many of the “Orangemen” no longer feel British. It’s like the Anglo-Norman (the many, many Irish Protestants like the first President of Ireland) who started off as non-Irish but ended up as more Irish than the Irish themselves.
British culture is failing and Westminster is leaving Northern Ireland, so more Northern Irish ‘unionist’ families feel more in tune with their Irish brothers in the republic.
poison pill: Did you see the Brexit percentages?
hmm... what were they?
It will happen.
Now that the Republic of Ireland is a totally secular country that will allow them to abort as many babies as they want, it will become their preference. That way they get to remain in their precious EU.
Is this poll credible or is it trying to shape public opinion?
This is a very credible poll. Lord Ashdowne’s polls are very well done - he was spot on talking about the results and reasons for the brexit referendum results
Nah, Ireland’s done extremely well as part of the EU - it sees that it’s voice is heard and its language too, unlike how it was under Westminster
They have the same abortion laws as the USA or the UK. In fact, more restrictive than the UK or parts of the USA
A return to a “Hard Border” will bring a return of the violence on both sides. This is well known. Unification within the EU is the best solution. Both the unionists and the nationalists have thrived without a border and peace has come to Ireland because of it and the Good Friday Agreement. Unification as a EU nation will benefit all.
BTW... both sides still have a few weapons. Don’t pin this on the RA.
Ireland’s government is gung-ho on importing non-Irish, the more diverse, the better.
“We now have a very sizable Muslim population in Ireland, estimated at around 65,000 and predicted to grow to over 100,000 in the next five years or so.”
About one third of Muslims here are immigrants and the rest are native Irish converts.
Ireland,today,*is* a tawdry little European cesspool.
You are a European Union apparatchik. That's been well established here on FR.I,personally,don't know why you bother to post here. You'd be far happier with the DUmpster Kids.
Very true..Most Unionists are of Scottish descent anyway,so their culture is more Celt than Anglo
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