I think the DNC and their media friends are going to do what they can to get Biden over the finish line to the nomination. Then, if Biden is not getting any traction against President Trump (and he won’t despite all the fake polls and reporting), then he’s going to have a medical event, and (like New Jersey senate politics) the DNC is going to replace Biden on the ballot with Warren (probably leapfrogging over Bernie). Then they will lose in a landslide.
Replace Warren with Clinton and then your analysis is correct.