Basically, the needle would be pointing awfully far to the right.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 11, 2019
Here's a very simple way to look at it. McCready has won Mec. eday by 1200, with 27/50 precincts. So he could get another 1200 if he kept it up.
But he's down >2500, and can fall further elsewhere as election day votes come from rural areas.
So he needs much better than this.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 11, 2019
Assuming 63k total votes in Mecklenburg, D could pick up another 2600 net votes there.
With R already ahead by 2500 and will pick up more votes in rural areas, I don’t think D can win.
Close, but an R win.