Posted on 09/10/2019 11:29:35 AM PDT by DoodleBob
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Traders know that when President Donald Trump tweets he can rock financial markets, often in unpredictable ways, but analysts at JP Morgan have now quantified the impact of his tweets, at least on the U.S. interest rates market.
Trump’s tweets, which have in recent months veered toward market-sensitive topics such as trade and monetary policy, have increasingly moved U.S. rates markets, analyst Munier Salem said in a note on Friday.
In the report, which runs well over 4,000 words, J.P. Morgan analysts use machine learning techniques and their own volatility model to show how the president’s 280-character missives served to raise investors’ expectations for future moves in the U.S. rates market.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
“Using their own volatility model..”
LOL, sure...”garbage in garbage out”
Author is ignorant
Bad timing on the release of this study.
Trump wants interest rates to go down.
Interest rates on the 10 Year Treasury went up the last six days in a row.
However, in after hours trading today, 10 Year interest rates suddenly dropped 9 basis points, which means something must have happened.
I don’t have time at the moment to find out what happened.
Thanks.
Yeah but they used MODELS! Computer generated!
Monetary policy is really complex, and the moment you start to understand it, you find out there are always exceptions to every basic rule.
In the simplest terms I know...
Trump wants low interest rates and a “weak” dollar.
Low interest rates encourage Americans to buy homes, buy cars, and use their credit cards. A weak dollar encourages foreign counties to buy our export products.
USA interest rates are currently near record lows. The Federal Reserve fears that low interest rates will create inflation.
Consequently, the Fed wants to raise rates. The Fed also wants a “strong” dollar. A strong dollar means products from foreign countries are less expensive for Americans.
This same monetary battle has been fought all over the world for centuries.
The “winners” are always temporary.
Thank you for taking the time to help me understand things a little better.
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