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Let’s settle this once and for all. I have access to a program that only emergency managers, the government and meteorologists have access to.

You do understand that's still arbitrary right? Before Sunday the Euro and GFS were worlds apart. The GFS had the track across Florida and Euro had the turn, then they switched although the Euro was still off the Florida coast. The NHC had to guess at the track you displayed and they made the correct decision in hindsight. That doesn't mean the forecast was going to be correct. On the contrary the Bermuda high could have strengthened a bit and caused the hurricane to meander west over Florida and eventually enter the gulf.

Saturday 5am: "The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members." So still a possibility of crossing into the Gulf of Mexico, in fact a distinct possibility on Saturday.

Sunday 5am: "By tonight, the global models show the ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours."

So while still off the coast, still some uncertainty. Discussions archived at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN.shtml?

You can't use that Sunday Sep 1 track diagram to describe that uncertainty, it's not displayed. The track is a decision based on a variety of track models and changes in those models. You certainly cannot use the fact that the track eventually verified to assume there was no uncertainty. If you want to display model runs or describe the uncertainty some other way, that's fine.

The tweet by the POTUS was from Sunday morning. The tweet by the NWS office was from 3 hours later. If you look at the 6z models on the 1st, they are clustered. But-my point on the post is very simple-the wind swath of the official forecast by the NHC along the official track misses Alabama by 200 miles. The TS winds only extend to the west by 100 miles. The track is 300 miles to the east. At the time of the tweet by the POTUS not one reliable model or the official forecast put the track close enough to Alabama to give them any realistic threat for EM planning purposes-which is probably the purpose of the tweet-because they had been given an all clear by the State EOC and now a tweet is causing their phones to blow up.

Stop being “of the body” and just do some logical thinking “FRiend.” I am “not of the body.” Lol. I call it like I see it.