[NELSON111]

The tweet by the POTUS was from Sunday morning. The tweet by the NWS office was from 3 hours later. If you look at the 6z models on the 1st, they are clustered. But-my point on the post is very simple-the wind swath of the official forecast by the NHC along the official track misses Alabama by 200 miles. The TS winds only extend to the west by 100 miles. The track is 300 miles to the east. At the time of the tweet by the POTUS not one reliable model or the official forecast put the track close enough to Alabama to give them any realistic threat for EM planning purposes-which is probably the purpose of the tweet-because they had been given an all clear by the State EOC and now a tweet is causing their phones to blow up.

Stop being “of the body” and just do some logical thinking “FRiend.” I am “not of the body.” Lol. I call it like I see it.

[palmer]

But-my point on the post is very simple-the wind swath of the official forecast by the NHC along the official track misses Alabama by 200 miles. The TS winds only extend to the west by 100 miles. The track is 300 miles to the east. At the time of the tweet by the POTUS

The official track doesn't represent the possible tracks, that's why it is a line. The cone is not the "wind swath", it's a set of circles that depict the possible positions of the center of the hurricane: "The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle." The possible tropical wind swath is what I showed above which included the edge of Alabama.

At the "time of the tweet" the POTUS was using older information. We don't know how old.