Posted on 09/06/2019 6:54:33 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Anti-Trumpers agree: The president’s trade battle with China is hurting our economy and, in particular, America’s farmers. We are told that the tariff tiffs have caused a collapse in U.S. agricultural exports to China, and consequent heartbreak in our heartland.
It isn’t true.
As with most criticisms lodged against the Trump White House, this oft-repeated narrative is way overblown. Turns out, far from suffering what CNBC recently described as “a devastating year for farmers” the farmers of America overall are doing quite well.
The Department of Agriculture recently forecast that net farm income will rise nearly 5 percent this year, to $88 billion. That growth comes on top of increases in both 2017 and 2018 and is, just for the record, faster than the overall growth of the economy.
For sure, times could be better. The forecast for this year means that real net farm income would come in 36 percent below its peak of $136.5 billion in 2013 and slightly below its 2000-18 average ($90.1 billion). Farmers suffered a severe drop in total revenues during the Obama years, collapsing from $484 billion in 2013 to $412 billion in 2016. Weirdly, I don’t remember the media paying much attention.
SNIP
You mean Free Traitors™ were wrong and their scare tactics were just that, scare tactics. Who knew?
Did anyone believe the msm that farmers were going to be hurting?
The media is corrupt, lying is what they do.
Food is (completely) fungible.
100 percent.
Any food which does not go to China, goes to the place which replaced the food to China.
It is that simple.
When Vuvuzela forbid oil sales to the US they instead sold the oil at a discount to the Chinese, who then resold it to the US. When various other trade disputes led to some Chinese products being taxed in the US, they instead sold them to the Mexicans and Canadians who then resold them to the US. When the EU forbid some UK products being sold there they were sold to a middle man who resold them in the EU. The same will happen to US products forbidden by the Chinese. Trade is a complicated thing and for every action there is a reaction. Wherever there is demand, there will be a supply. (Hence the futility of fighting the drug war on foreign shores when the driver, demand, is here.) None of the articles I have read on trade go far enough into the details to be informative on what is really happening. Information-wise, we are being victimized by academics and talking heads who have never dealt with the real world.
Who controls the world trade in soybeans” Archer-Daniels-Midland, that’s who.
Farmers suffered much more from the vagaries of weather than from the “collapse” of overseas markets.
The market did not collapse. It just went elsewhere.
Still the breadbasket of the world. Even without avocados.
Well, all the networks and newspapers DID interview that farmer who voted for Trump but vowed to not vote for him again.
Receipts are down and production expenses are up. What is driving the growth in net farm income is growth in cash transfers from the government.
Looking at soybeans, the crop most affected by the trade war. Soybean receipts in 2019 are expected to decrease ($5.7 billion or 14.3 percent), reflecting anticipated declines in both price and quantities sold.
Most liquidity measures are expected to weaken, with working capital levels forecast down 18.7 percent to $56.9 billion.
Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to rise again in 2019.
You sure wouldn't guess that was true if you watch "Fair and Balanced" news. I can only imagine what the Communist News Network (CNN) is saying.
Actually, it called capitalism. Some soy bean trader is now buying the US beans a little cheaper because there may be an excess in supply. So, that trader now pays a little less and sells them to somebody else who then sells them to China.
China will still buy just as many soybeans as they did before. They will just buy them from a different source. The markets will adjust and somebody else will fill the void.
“Farmers suffered much more from the vagaries of weather than from the “collapse” of overseas markets.”
That’s the truth.
“China will still buy just as many soybeans as they did before.”
Most of their soybeans go to feed their hogs - they are the world’s largest pork producer. It is their staple meat.
Unrelated to the trade war, their hog population has been devastated by the African Swine Fever virus, and their feed requirements are way down this year.
But otherwise, your principle is correct - commodity products are easy to substitute.
Anti-Trumpers agree: The president’s trade battle with China is hurting our economy and, in particular, America’s farmers. We are told that the tariff tiffs have caused a collapse in U.S. agricultural exports to China, and consequent heartbreak in our heartland. It isn’t true.
Farmers know the United States must stand up to China at some point. They're realists. Farmer's aren't corrupt liberal 'elite' crybabies... they're small business owners.
Funny.
I thought the lefty organic vegans were all about sustainable agriculture & locally grown produce.
Not to mention reducing our fossil fuel consumption & carbon footprint.
Now they’re all about selling our farmers’ veggies to China so we can buy veggies from Argentina to eat.
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