Posted on 08/29/2019 5:35:17 AM PDT by Kaslin
Seventy-five percent of Republican voters believe it really doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate because none of them will beat Donald Trump in next year's election. On the other hand, ScottRasmussen.com polling found that 49% of Democratic voters say it really doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate because any of them will beat Trump.
Among all voters, 41% believe that none of the Democrats running will beat the president, while 36% believe any of them will do so.
Those who aren't sure what will happen are the only ones who've got it right. It's too early to know what will happen, and it does matter which candidate the Democrats choose to represent them.
While it's hard for political junkies to believe, most Americans aren't paying attention to the campaign yet. Just 23% of all voters are very closely following the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The fundamental dynamics of election 2020 are that Democrats have a solid base equal to just over 40% of all voters. Republicans have a solid base just a few points less than 40%. The other 20% includes some who lean in one direction or the other but are far from committed to either party. There are a few more Republican leaners than Democratic leaners (including some GOP voters who aren't sold on President Trump).
These fundamentals suggest that if both parties manage to hold on to both their base and marginal voters, we will have a close election. In that case, the outcome will wind up in the hands of political neutrals that activists can't really understand.
These fundamentals suggest that if both parties manage to hold on to both their base and marginal voters, we will have a close election. In that case, the outcome will wind up in the hands of political neutrals that activists can't really understand.
The most distinctive feature of these ultimately decisive voters is that they don't think the decision matters all that much. While activists tend to believe that victory by the other side will end the world as we know it, most political neutrals don't believe things would be all that different today if Hillary Clinton had won in 2016. For many of the political neutrals, the question is not how they will vote but if they will vote.
So as we try to anticipate the results of election 2020, the first question will be whether each side can hold on to their marginal voters. Will those who lean Republican but are skeptical of President Trump stay home? Vote third-party? Will Democratic leaners who like Bernie Sanders show up if Joe Biden is the nominee? Will Biden voters support a candidate like Sanders or Elizabeth Warren?
If both parties can hold their coalitions together, the key question will then be which side can convince the political neutrals that the election matters and their team is best. Anybody who claims to know today how this will all turn out is either lying to you or deluding themselves.
Finally, on a personal note, this is my last column for Creators Syndicate. They've been great to work with for the past nine years, and I've been blessed by a great group of editors along the way. I've also enjoyed the feedback from readers and the publications carrying the column. But now, with 2020 on the horizon, I will focus all my energies on providing daily updates at ScottRasmussen.com.
He used a lot of words to say nothing.
Elections are won and lost by the mushy middle. Sad but true. Trump is a showman and understand s this. I give him the edge.
Not true, not true at all. The "mushy middle", about 100,000 voters, don't bother to vote because neither party represents the needs of Americana workers. Trump can get some of them to vote for him, hopefully a lot of them.
‘Republican voters believe it really doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate’
‘who’ and ‘whom’ are two distinct words, Mr. Rasmussen, and they are distinct for a reason, contextual comprehension...
- Democrats hide the extent of fraud by denying the existence of voter fraud while accusing Republicans of it with media blitzes.
- The Secretary of State Project, (apparently originally funded by George Soros) which seeks to put Democrats in charge of both the voting, and the vote counting, processes has now succeeded to the point that a majority of American voters are affected.
- Fighting the use of voter id and/or voter list verification though any means possible including slow walking legislated implementations, lawfare, inviting federal intrusion into state matters, and directing state and local authority funds aimed at remediation toward the acquisition and use of dysfunctional technologies with long histories of delay, uncontrolled cost escalation, and eventual failure;
- Developing and perpetuating utterly ineffective processes for delivering or counting military ballots (which tend to favor Republicans)
- Refusing to reform equally incompetent and ineffective processes for preventing felons, illegals, or the dead (all of whom tend to vote Democrat) from swaying elections; and,
- Using litigation, and the threat of litigation, to sway electoral process decisions in favor of Democrats and against Republicans.
- Democrats see lawfare, and more importantly the threat of lawfare, as a perfectly legitimate way to win elections. Encouraging the proliferation of system disconnects in advance vote and vote counting processes. In particular abuse of the Help America Vote Act (2002) has enabled Democrats to insert significant new opportunities for voting fraud into the system. For example, the use of Wintel (Windows on Intel) architecture voting machines usually justifies the use of precinct level "servers" to collect local data that is then passed to other servers "up" the counting hierarchy. Since each level uses programmable machines that can be subverted, each such disconnect offers multiple opportunities for fraud.
- Non-citizens votes are being allowed and counted.
- Legislators must be told immediately to remove or limit the use of lawfare to affect electoral process decisions. The judiciary has become deeply politicized and is correspondingly unfit to render impartial judgement on deeply political issues, and should therefore not be called on to settle electoral disputes -- meaning that other means of settlement, such as legislative committees or investigative juries made up entirely of retired police officers, must be found and empowered.
From now to 2020 - I would encourage all Freepers to frequently contact all of their legislators in DC and ask them to answer the question: "In light of these facts, what are you doing to end voter fraud being perpetuated across the nation by the democrat party and its allies?" Insist on getting a straight answer.
I believe, based only on anecdotal evidence, that Trump will win again, and even increase his numbers.
This is based only on the people I meet, BUT, I live in Westmoreland County, a demonRAT county, that voted almost 2-1 for Trump, and wearing a MAGA hat is commonplace.
Yesterday, I saw 3 guys working on repairing a house and 2 out of 3 were wearing Trump Tee shirts, and the other one was wearing a MAGA hat.
I was wearing my Trump 2016 hat and Trump/Pence 2016 tee shirt and carrying my S & W 357 Magnum and S & W 38 snubby, so this area may not be representative of the USA.
I can guarantee that Westmoreland County in PA, will vote for Trump by at least 2-1, with probably an even bigger margin, and we can't wait.
Screw your legislator, get off your lazy ass and become a poll watcher.
Call the local pubbie office, NOW, and find out what is required for you, every FReeper in good health, to become a poll watcher.
PA has over 11,000 precincts and most are not being watched by pubbie poll watchers, but the paid workers are mostly demonRATS, and are in the pocket of the corrupt unions and party bosses. The demonRAT workers are either complicit or turn a blind eye to the obvious rampant voter fraud.
Many FReepers are retired, and have no excuse not to become active, they are just too damn comfortable and complacent and want their legislator to 'pass a law'.
Regardless of where you live, unless it is in a deep blue state, being a poll watcher, will dramatically reduce the voting day fraud.
If you live in a deep blue state, find other ways to get actively involved.
Calling your congress critter is like pissing up a wet rope, in a down draft.
They are worthless as teats on a boar.
Very good advice!
Done!
The election is Trumps to lose and he is about to lose it by playing politics with the second amendment. I can say if President Trump signs any gun control measure no matter how big or small he will not get reelected. This you can take to the bank. He has already seriously hurt his chances with the bumpstock ban, any more and its game over.
Both sides vastly underestimate the number of eligible voters that care like they do, at least enough to vote about it one way or the other. The eligible voters that choose not to vote have outnumbered the turnout of either political party for 100+ years. The true horror of the situation is that supposedly the dumbest 10% of eligible voters that somehow manage to vote actually decide all presidential elections, the swing voters.
Our elections aren’t contests between opposing political philosophies, but contests determined by whomever is able to sway the swayable voters who have no guiding political philosophy. The result could be good or bad, but invariably it wasn’t determined by informed voters, it was determined by the swayable voters.
Freegards
The DemocRAT fraud machine will kick into high gear, but it still won’t be enough.
I wouldn't broad brush all legislators as you do.If enough constituents complain about a particular issue, a rational legislator will figure those complaints into his/her desire to be reelected. Most of them want to be reelected. Yes, some are arrogant and don't care about what their constituents think but some are there to represent their constituents. This issue brings to mind a parable familiar to most Christians:
Then Jesus told his disciples a parable to show them that they should always pray and not give up.He said: “In a certain town there was a judge who neither feared God nor cared what people thought. And there was a widow in that town who kept coming to him with the plea, ‘Grant me justice against my adversary.’ “For some time he refused. But finally he said to himself, ‘Even though I don’t fear God or care what people think, yet because this widow keeps bothering me, I will see that she gets justice, so that she won’t eventually come and attack me!’” - Luke 18:1-5
Let's keep 'bothering' our representatives! That's how representative government works.
Never underestimate the enemy and assume the plan will go perfectly. It will not be easy to hold the ground and gain more. President Trump fights hard but his army as the GOP is very weak and is unsteady in allegiance. The left will have a flawed and weak candidate but the DNC is strong and fights to win at all costs and play by their own rules with a blind eye turned by the Swamp.
The other Westmoreland County (the birthplace of George Washington and Robert E. Lee) also went for Trump but by a much narrower margin.
A significant omission by Rasmussen is that turnout matters. If Republicans have 39% of the electorate and 37% turnout, and the Democrats have 40% but only 36% percent turn out, the Pubbies win by 1% or 3.4 million votes.
The other issue is this isn’t a national popularity contest. It’s a state popularity contest. If Trump holds all the states he won before, he wins. If he gains some of the close ones he wins bigger.
The conclusion is the same. Wait and see.
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