What is happening is we are seeing a GLOBAL slowdown in the GLOBAL economy. That is what some on this site are missing (and it's not some big BLS conspiracy). This is called the business cycle. People here are failing to remember that US manufacturers don't just deal with the realities of a trade war - but with a global economy.
SO: We export about $2.5 TRILLION a year in goods. About $1 trillion of that is in the manufactured category.
OK - so If there is a GLOBAL economic slowdown - which there is (Europe is tanking HARD...and China is tanking badly as well) - then there is LESS of a demand for manufactured goods. PMI will lead the way in showing whats coming - JOBS data will lag.
As to your question about the trade war and who it will impact the PMI - it does it like this: It makes factories nervous....given the slow down in Eurpoe and Asia ALREADY (China and Japan). If a factory thinks the trade war will HURT China (which is basically what Trump is really trying to do I think - he's repeating what Reagan did with the Soviets): Why would they maintain the same production level if nobody will buy their goods at the same rate? They won't have anyone to export them to. They won't have buyers in Europe or Asia - the two top importers of their goods. SO - they are putting on the brakes.
We saw a collapse last spring in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) - which is the global shipping index. Now we are seeing a spike but yet manufacturing is falling. We've seen this before. What that USUALLY means is that manufacturers are rushing their goods out to market before a global recession hits. Usually, a spike in the BDI is a GOOD sign - but also correlates with a FALL in the price of gold. ANYTIME you see a spike in the BDI and a spike in gold - it means global players know a global recession is coming. This last happened in 2007-2008. Coincidently, the PMI began dipping in January of 2007 (and the first 2/10 yield inversion was late 2005). It then went totally negative in 2007.
A global recession will reach us. Deutsche Bank is on the brink of collapse. They have about $75 TRILLION in derivative exposures WORLDWIDE. This will make Lehman brothers look like the Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Company failure of 1984. IOW - it's small potatoes compared to DB. DB will drag a lot of banks down with it. The question is WHEN. Personally - I think it will be timed for next spring (or late winter)...and Trump won't have a chance to fight off the recession that's coming. That's how I think they (the globalists) take him out. They collapse the system. That's why I am so against rate cuts now...it takes away all of our ammo to fight the monster when it appears. I think given CERTAIN conditions we COULD be a flight to safety in a world banking collapse - IF our banks were able to offer some % ROI. But - if we lower rates NOW - we won't be able to do that when they collapse the system to take him out. That's just my opinion - we will see if that is what happens or not.
derivatives
Financial unicorns to my way of thinking. Despise those things.
yep, Europe is in the throngs of a severe slowdown.
You need to get better sources. In 2018 we exported 1.6T and imported 2.5T a defecit of $900B annually.
GDP From Manufacturing in the United States is $8.6 Trillion. Using your dubious $1T annual manufacturing export figure, as percent off total USA manufacturing 1/8 = 12.5%. So for example, a "slowdown of 2%" in world demand would only be 3% of TOTAL manufacturing. A 2% loss in manufacturing demand as a percent of total GDP would be $30B/$22T = .02%!!! IT DOESN'T EVEN MOVE THE NEEDLE.
Not a big risk.